U.S. National Debt Surpasses $40 Trillion as Borrowing Costs Hit Nearly 20-Year Highs
nashnova research
U.S. national debt has crossed $40 trillion, with some Treasury yields at their highest in nearly two decades — this means the federal government is spending more and more each year just on interest, squeezing room for everything else.
How did it reach $40 trillion?
The CBO estimates Trump's second-term tax and immigration bill will add $4.7 trillion in new debt.
His first-term tax cuts already added $8.4 trillion, per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
This means → Trump-era policies alone account for roughly $13 trillion in new debt — close to a third of the current total.
Who bears the blame?
This is not a one-administration problem. Republican presidents Reagan and George W. Bush expanded deficits through tax cuts; Bush-era war spending added heavily to the tab.
Democratic presidents Obama and Biden each launched massive stimulus — after the 2008 financial crisis and Covid-19, respectively.
In plain terms = both parties spent freely. Clinton was the rare exception, achieving annual surpluses thanks to strong growth and a welfare-reform deal with a Republican Congress.
Where does the money come from — and where does it go?
The baby-boom generation — those born in the post-WWII birth surge — is retiring en masse, straining Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
Payroll-tax revenue can no longer cover future benefit payouts. This reflects a structural imbalance: fewer workers paying in, more retirees drawing out.
The Trump administration also reshaped the tax mix: higher tariffs, lower corporate rates. Congressional budget officials say the burden has shifted toward working families and middle-to-lower-income households.
What are ordinary households feeling?
Budget experts note that even if voters haven't ranked debt as a top concern, the impact is already reaching them: elevated mortgage rates and wage growth trailing inflation.
This means → the national debt is not an abstract Washington number — it hits families directly through interest rates and prices, squeezing real purchasing power.
The debt expansion lands just ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, when voters will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress.
What comes next?
The White House says Trump is "the first president to seriously tackle waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government," citing workforce cuts and cancelled programs.
The reality: the 2025 annual deficit narrowed slightly, but total debt kept growing — the cuts are nowhere near the pace of new borrowing.
Budget experts warn the current trajectory will force future Congresses and presidents into politically explosive choices: raise taxes or cut the social safety net, potentially including Social Security benefits.
No matter how you look at Trump's record across both terms, you cannot call it a fiscal success. We didn't get here entirely on his watch, but nothing improved.
Maya MacGuineas
Chair, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
(commenting on U.S. national debt crossing $40 trillion)
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