U.S. September Homebuilder Confidence Index Drops to 32, Hitting Over Two-Year Low
nashnova research
The NAHB housing market index fell to 32 in September — the lowest since late 2022 — staying below the break-even line for over two years as builders face shrinking buyer traffic and rising costs simultaneously.
How bad is this number?
The NAHB housing market index (a monthly survey of builder confidence) dropped to 32 in September, down 3 points from August and below economists' forecast of 34.
This means → the index has sat below the 50 break-even line for over two years. More builders call the market "poor" than "good" — and that hasn't changed.
In plain terms = 50 means half-and-half; 32 means roughly one in three builders sees decent conditions.
Why are builders this pessimistic?
NAHB chairman Bill Owens pointed to the core driver: rising mortgage rates have visibly thinned buyer traffic across most of the country.
Costs are squeezing from the other side — materials, fuel prices, and a persistent labor shortage all adding pressure at once.
Some markets report that stepped-up immigration enforcement is keeping legal workers from showing up at job sites, deepening the labor crunch.
Any bright spots in the sub-indices?
None. All three sub-indices weakened: future sales expectations fell to the lowest since early 2023, current sales declined in step, and buyer traffic held flat at depressed levels.
Builders are leaning harder on incentives: 38% cut prices this month (vs. 35% in August) and 66% offered sales incentives (vs. 63%).
This means → even active discounting and sweeteners cannot offset retreating demand. Builders are losing pricing power.
Which regions are hit hardest?
The South — America's largest homebuilding market — saw confidence slide to a one-year low. The Midwest and Northeast also weakened.
The only exception: the West edged up slightly, but not enough to alter the national downtrend.
What is the market pricing in?
The iShares US Home Construction ETF has fallen roughly 20% year-to-date, reflecting sustained investor pessimism toward the sector.
Consumer confidence is also near historic lows, further narrowing the window for a housing turnaround.
This means → equity prices and sentiment data point the same way — the market sees no inflection point yet.
What comes next?
The federal government releases August housing starts on Thursday; the National Association of Realtors publishes August pending home sales the same day.
Both reports will test housing-market conditions with hard transaction data, not just a confidence survey.
In plain terms = the confidence index captures builders' feelings; starts and pending sales capture real money. Thursday's hard data is the next key checkpoint.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。