U.S. Treasury: No Major Trading Partner Manipulated Currency in 2025
Claire Weston
The U.S. Treasury's latest semi-annual report found no major trading partner manipulated its currency in 2025, but kept 10 economies on its monitoring list and expanded surveillance to cover two-way intervention — a quiet tightening of the bar.
What is the core finding?
The Treasury concluded under the 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act that no major trading partner manipulated its currency for unfair trade advantage in 2025.
A separate enhanced analysis confirmed: no economy met all three criteria for currency manipulation.
In plain terms = everyone passed, but the exam itself is getting harder — the monitoring list stays, and the rules just changed.
Who is on the monitoring list?
The Treasury maintained its monitoring list of 10 economies: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland.
All 10 appeared on the January 2026 report; the composition is unchanged.
Under the 2015 Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act, an economy is listed if it meets at least two of three criteria: ① a significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.; ② a material current-account surplus; ③ persistent one-sided FX intervention.
Who might come off the list first?
The Treasury flagged Thailand, Singapore, and Switzerland as each meeting only one of the three criteria.
This means → if they still fall short of two criteria in the next report, they will be formally removed.
In plain terms = these three are already at the edge of the safe zone — one more clean report and they're off.
How have the rules themselves changed?
Starting January this year, the Treasury broadened its surveillance: it now monitors not only whether economies intervene to prevent appreciation, but also whether they intervene when their currencies face depreciation pressure.
In plain terms = the old test only caught "holding the currency down"; now "propping the currency up" counts too — two-way intervention is on the radar.
This reflects a substantive tightening of the monitoring framework; future reports may flag economies that previously flew under the threshold.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.