UBS Forecasts Fed to Raise Rates by 25bps Each in September and December 2026
nashnova research
UBS shifted its Fed call from 'no moves all year' to two 25-bp hikes in September and December, driven by Chair Warsh's hawkish signal, supply-side inflation risk, and a strong August jobs print — markets now price a 58% chance of a September hike.
Why did UBS change its call?
UBS had forecast no Fed rate moves in 2026. It now expects two 25-bp hikes — a sharp reversal.
The report cites three triggers: Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, inflation upside risk from supply bottlenecks, and stronger-than-expected August payrolls.
This means → no single data point flipped the view; three signals converged on the same conclusion — "rates still need to go higher."
What made the August jobs data so strong?
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, beating expectations; the unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
In plain terms = firms are still hiring and unemployment isn't rising, so the economy hasn't slowed enough to justify a cut — giving the Fed room to hike instead.
Citi and Macquarie also raised their rate forecasts after the release; UBS is not alone.
Where does the Fed itself stand?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady if subsequent data show inflation pressures continuing to ease.
This means → the Fed is not unified — Warsh leans hawkish, Waller leans dovish, and the outcome hinges on the next few months of data.
What is the market pricing in?
The CME FedWatch tool shows a roughly 58% probability of a 25-bp hike at the September 15–16 meeting, up from 52% the day before.
This reflects a market rapidly absorbing the hike narrative but not yet reaching consensus — about 40% still bets on no hike.
The key test ahead: whether Warsh's hawkish signal and the strong jobs data are confirmed by subsequent months' readings.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。