UBS: Platinum and Silver Preferred Over Gold Among Precious Metals
nashnova research
UBS's latest report rates platinum and silver as bullish, expecting both to outperform gold; gold retains structural support from central-bank buying, but a technical C-wave decline risk makes it the weakest link in the precious-metals complex for now.
What's wrong with gold — why isn't support enough?
Gold's fundamentals are solid: central-bank buying, ETF inflows, and recovering Asian physical demand all underpin prices. Even as rate-hike expectations rose, gold held its support level.
The problem is technical: the weekly chart still risks a C-wave decline — the third leg down in a common technical pattern. Confirmation requires a weekly close below $4,017.39.
This means → fundamentals say "hold," but the chart says "another leg down is possible." Facing that conflict, UBS stays cautious with a neutral rating.
To relieve downside pressure, gold must reclaim $4,442.96. Upside targets sit at $4,510.85, $4,631.61, and $4,797.71.
Why is platinum rated bullish?
UBS flags a key signal: borrowing activity in platinum's forward market — where contracts for future delivery are traded — is rising, demand is stretching into longer tenors, and institutional participation is clearly increasing.
In plain terms = someone is quietly stockpiling platinum over longer horizons, and this demand is not fully visible through traditional channels.
Platinum's rally has been sharper and more sudden than palladium's, indicating capital is rotating within the precious-metals complex.
Technical targets: $1,866.74 → $1,965.15 → $1,999.87. A break above $1,999.87 opens the path to $2,063.56.
Where does silver's resilience come from?
UBS notes that when gold weakened, silver did not follow it down and showed resilience instead. This reflects independent support factors behind silver, not just a gold shadow.
Key technical level: a break above $68.33 shifts focus to the $71.64 TD Propulsion resistance — a critical price level in the DeMark technical system.
Beyond $71.64, upside opens to $80.22, $84.36, and $88.49. Support sits at $60.38, $56.56, and $55.00.
Why is palladium lagging behind?
The market expected a labor stoppage at the Stillwater mine to tighten palladium supply, but the initial price spike drew limited follow-through buying.
This means → a supply-side bullish catalyst failed to attract sustained capital. Overall market participation remained restrained, leaving palladium as the weakest performer among the four precious metals.
How does the macro backdrop affect this call?
UBS expects two rate hikes this year, but the market broadly views a 25-basis-point hike as already priced in, limiting the long-term impact on gold.
Rising oil prices are reigniting inflation concerns. Higher-than-expected inflation data could increase equity pullback risk, yet gold may still benefit from safe-haven demand over the medium term.
In plain terms = rate hikes pressure gold, inflation supports gold — the two roughly offset. UBS is not bearish on gold; it simply sees more upside elasticity in platinum and silver.
The key test of UBS's call: whether platinum's tightening forward market can translate into sustained price gains.
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