UBS Predicts Samsung Will Overtake SK Hynix in HBM Market Share by 2027
N.R. Finch
UBS forecasts Samsung's HBM share rising from 28% to 41% by 2027, overtaking SK Hynix; if confirmed, Samsung would lead all three major memory segments — DRAM, NAND, and HBM.
Why are two major banks both betting on a Samsung comeback?
UBS projects Samsung's HBM share climbing from 28% in 2025 to 41% in 2027. SK Hynix drops from 59% to 39% over the same period — a full role reversal.
Bernstein's call is even bolder: Samsung at 46% by 2027, SK Hynix at 37%.
This means → two independent firms reach the same directional conclusion. The core logic is not "Samsung catching up" — it is that a generational product shift naturally favors the challenger ramping new capacity.
Why could HBM4 redraw the competitive map?
UBS estimates 12-layer HBM3E will still account for roughly 65% of total HBM demand in 2026. SK Hynix's lead in this generation remains solid.
By 2027, HBM4 — the fourth generation of high-bandwidth memory, another step up in bandwidth and capacity — is expected to reach 37% of the market, becoming the single largest category. HBM4E adds another 12%.
In plain terms = as long as the race stays on HBM3E, SK Hynix leads. Once the track shifts to HBM4, past yield and capacity advantages must be rebuilt — and that reset is Samsung's window.
Who is buying — what changed on the demand side?
Google, AMD, and Amazon Web Services are accelerating custom AI chip development. Procurement demand for HBM4 is expected to rise sharply from 2027.
Reports note Samsung stands to benefit from a more diversified customer base — unlike SK Hynix, which relies heavily on Nvidia as a single major buyer.
This means → when the buyer landscape shifts from one dominant customer to multiple in-house chip programs, a supplier's client diversification itself becomes a competitive edge.
Can this forecast be trusted — what are the key variables?
Samsung already holds the global No. 1 position in both DRAM and NAND, maintaining that lead through Q1 2026.
Whether HBM share flips on schedule in 2027 hinges on two factors: HBM4 mass-production timing and the pace of customer qualification.
This reflects a forecast with a clear directional signal but real timing uncertainty — even a one- or two-quarter delay in volume production would shift the share curve to the right.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.