US-Iran Ceasefire Expires Amid Negotiation Deadlock; US Stock Futures Edge Higher
Nashnova编辑部
The 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired Monday with talks still deadlocked, yet US equity futures edged higher — markets have shifted focus to this week's Fed minutes, retail earnings, and consumer-confidence data.
The ceasefire expired — why aren't markets panicking?
The 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired Monday. Talks remain deadlocked. Julius Baer analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said bluntly: "Peace is not in sight in the near term."
Yet US futures were calm: Dow futures dipped 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%.
This means → geopolitical risk is rising, but capital is pricing this week's Fed signals and corporate earnings as the bigger driver. The Middle East did not dominate Monday's tape.
Three threads this week — what is the market waiting for?
Fed minutes drop Wednesday. Deutsche Bank analysts note that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has recently stepped back from forward guidance. This means → the minutes may be the only window into how the committee is weighing inflation risk against the urgency to act.
Walmart and Home Depot earnings will reveal the real health of the US consumer, alongside upcoming consumer-confidence data. All three signals together answer one question: can the American consumer still hold up?
In plain terms = what the Fed said, how much big retailers earned, and how consumers themselves feel — all three puzzle pieces land this week, and the market needs them to point in the same direction.
Dollar weakening, Treasury yields falling — what's being priced in?
The dollar index fell to 99.452, a ten-day low. Recent soft jobs data and moderate inflation numbers have pushed markets to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes.
Markets now price roughly 35 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months — below Danske Bank analyst Filip Andersson's expectation of two 25-basis-point hikes (50 bps total). This means → the market is more dovish than some analysts, seeing limited room for further hikes.
US Treasury yields fell across the curve but remain elevated: the two-year at 4.155%, the ten-year at 4.681%. In plain terms = yields are drifting lower, but absolute levels are still high — markets have not truly pivoted to a rate-cut narrative.
How did European and Asian equities perform?
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, led by tech and pharma. STMicroelectronics gained 3%, ASML 2.35%, ASM International 2.7%; Dutch pharma firm Argenx surged ~7.7% on positive clinical-trial results, topping the index.
In Asia, capital rotated back into AI-linked names: the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7%, the Shanghai Composite 1.4%, the Hang Seng 1.5% — though Middle East uncertainty capped gains.
This reflects a market where global risk appetite has not collapsed despite the US-Iran stalemate — tech and AI remain the sectors investors are willing to add to.
Where are commodities and crypto headed?
Gold prices rose, driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand.
Bitcoin found some support as rate-hike expectations pulled back, but US-Iran uncertainty and an unclear crypto-regulatory outlook capped gains.
Brent crude held broadly steady; talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz made little headway. This means → the oil market is trading sideways on a "stalemate but no escalation" assumption. If talks break down entirely or strait access is disrupted, crude will be the first asset to react.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.