Wedbush: Nvidia Poised to Beat Guidance Again, Supply Is the Only Bottleneck
Nashnova编辑部
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson expects Nvidia to top its own guidance in the Aug 26 earnings report and issue above-consensus outlook for Q3 — the constraint on shipments is not demand but component supply.
Why does the analyst think Nvidia can beat again?
Bryson's call rests on two pillars: hyperscaler spending is still accelerating + Nvidia's supply-chain position is the strongest in the industry.
Projected 2026 capex for the four major US hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta — operators of the largest cloud data centers) has climbed from $410 billion to $725 billion. This means → the purchasing budgets downstream are swelling, and Nvidia's order book is not thinning any time soon.
In plain terms = buyers are lined up; the seller's only headache is making enough product.
Supply is the "only bottleneck" — where exactly?
Bryson notes that what caps Nvidia's shipment volume is not end-demand but the ability to source components and materials.
This means → Nvidia's revenue ceiling right now hinges on "can suppliers produce enough," not "do customers want to buy."
This reflects a rare industry dynamic: demand far exceeds supply, and pricing power sits entirely with Nvidia.
How long can demand hold up?
Bryson's conversations with data-center planners indicate 2027 build-out will expand further.
The fastest growth comes not from the hyperscalers themselves but from emerging cloud providers, model developers, and sovereign-AI programs.
He cites feedback from smaller cloud providers: the payback period on AI hardware-as-a-service (renting GPU servers to customers) runs roughly two to three years. This means → these players see the investment paying for itself, so they keep ordering.
Will the market reward another beat?
Bryson flags the key suspense: "Can a beat-and-raise once again draw a positive market reaction?" — a question he has posed ahead of the last three earnings prints.
He maintains an Outperform rating and a $330 price target on Nvidia.
Consensus expects Q2 EPS of $2.09 and revenue of $92.18 billion; earnings are due August 26. Nvidia shares edged lower in Monday pre-market trading.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.