Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Released Today: Memory Costs and EV Deliveries Are Key Focus Areas
Nashnova编辑部
Xiaomi reports Q2 results Tuesday, with consensus calling for a 6.6% revenue decline and gross margin at 20.4%; the market wants to know whether the smartphone unit can absorb rising memory costs and whether the 550,000-unit annual EV target stays credible — these two lines will determine if the recent 20% rally is a reversal or a bounce.
What numbers is the market waiting for?
Bloomberg consensus: Q2 revenue down 6.6% year-on-year, gross margin roughly 20.4% — about two percentage points below the year-ago quarter.
This means → the market has already priced in a weaker quarter. The real suspense is not how far revenue drops but whether margin holds.
Everbright Securities strategist Wu Zhihui said a better-than-expected profit print would be the key catalyst for the stock.
Is the smartphone business getting harder to monetize?
The core pressure is rising memory-chip prices — memory is one of the biggest cost items in a phone, and price hikes squeeze gross margin directly.
Xiaomi's playbook: push the product mix toward higher-priced models, using richer ASPs to offset input-cost inflation.
In plain terms = components cost more, so sell more expensive phones. Whether buyers follow, this earnings report will show.
Can Xiaomi still hit 550,000 EV deliveries this year?
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee wrote that the full-year 550,000-unit target "is becoming increasingly challenging."
She added it "remains achievable, but requires flawless execution and a rapid ramp of the new SkyNomad model."
This means → every monthly delivery number in the second half will be scrutinized; the margin for error is thin.
The stock is up 20% — is there still room?
Xiaomi's Hong Kong shares have rallied nearly 20% since late June — the best quarterly run in over a year, following four straight quarters of declines.
Two forces drove the rebound: sentiment from the new SUV launch + a broader re-rating of Chinese tech.
Forward P/E sits at roughly 17×, below its own five-year average and below the Nasdaq 100's 22×. This reflects still-cautious positioning — but also signals investors are waiting for earnings confirmation.
What are options and short sellers telling us?
The options market prices post-earnings stock movement at ±3.6%, above the 2.8% average of the past eight quarters.
In plain terms = options traders think the surprise factor this time will be bigger than recent prints.
Short interest has eased from a record 9.3% in June to 8.2% — bearish bets are shrinking, but far from gone.
This means → analyst expectations have already been trimmed, setting a low bar to beat. But if margin slips or EV deliveries disappoint, shorts can reload quickly.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.