Xiaomi Raises 2026 Smartphone Shipment Target by 16% to 110 Million Units
N.R. Finch
Xiaomi has raised its 2026 smartphone shipment target from roughly 90 million to 110 million units, betting that the memory-chip price surge is about to peak — yet the new figure is still more than a third below its original goal.
How many times has this target moved — and where is it now?
Xiaomi started 2026 targeting roughly 170 million units. A January cut brought it to 135 million; by late June it was down to about 95 million — a 40%+ collapse in six months.
The new 110 million is about 16% above the trough, but still 35% below the original plan.
This means → Xiaomi is not turning optimistic. It is nudging up from rock bottom — the direction has changed, but the magnitude is small.
Why raise the target now?
Xiaomi's internal view: memory-chip pricing momentum may be peaking.
Evidence from downstream: OPPO and Vivo recently rejected Samsung's Q3 memory quotes, even though the proposed increase was milder than in previous quarters. When buyers collectively push back, a pricing inflection is often close.
In plain terms = phone makers can no longer absorb the price hikes and are forcing suppliers' hands by refusing to buy. Xiaomi is betting on that turning point.
How much has memory surged — and why so sharply?
TrendForce data: Q1 2026 DRAM contract prices rose 90–95% and NAND rose 55–60% — both the largest single-quarter jumps on record. Q2 added another 58–64% for DRAM and 54–75% for NAND.
The root cause: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are diverting advanced capacity toward HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the premium chips that power AI servers — and server DRAM. Consumer-grade memory is being squeezed out of the production queue.
Omdia figures confirm the shift: Samsung's 2026 NAND wafer output falls from 4.9 million to 4.68 million; SK Hynix from ~1.9 million to 1.7 million; Kioxia from 4.8 million to 4.69 million.
Why are low-end phones hit the hardest?
Industry estimates: for phones priced under $200, memory accounts for over 30% of the bill of materials (BOM — the total component cost of a handset). For flagships above $800, it is under 10%.
This means → given the same DRAM price increase, a low-end phone's retail price must rise 40–50% to protect margins; a flagship needs only a 5–8% bump.
The extra volume Xiaomi is adding comes mainly from low-end models — the segment most sensitive to memory costs. This reflects Xiaomi's bet: if memory prices do fall, low-end demand will rebound first.
How badly has the broader phone market been hit?
In early June, Counterpoint Research cut its 2026 global smartphone forecast to about 1.08 billion units — a year-on-year decline now projected at 13.9%, up from the 2.1% drop expected at the start of the year. That would be the lowest since 2013.
IDC's parallel estimate: a roughly 13% year-on-year decline to about 1.1 billion units.
In plain terms = Xiaomi is not alone in slashing targets. The entire industry is shrinking. Memory inflation has pushed the global phone market back to a scale not seen in over a decade.
Can Xiaomi's bet actually pay off?
Two variables matter: whether memory prices genuinely inflect downward, and whether low-end demand can be released once cost pressure eases.
Multiple industry sources caution: downstream pushback on pricing ≠ an immediate price drop. The big three's capacity shift toward HBM is structural — the consumer-memory shortage will not resolve quickly.
As of publication, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo have not commented. This means → the raised target is a directional signal, not a certainty — if memory prices do not come down, 110 million units remains just a number.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.