Yuan Strengthens to Highest Since July 2022 as PBOC Sets Stronger Fixing for Eighth Straight Day
nashnova research
Offshore renminbi broke past 6.70 to a near-three-year high after the PBOC raised its daily fixing for an eighth straight session — a clear signal that Beijing is easing trade-talk pressure ahead of next week's Trump–Xi summit.
How far has the renminbi risen?
Offshore renminbi hit 6.6957 per dollar on September 18, the strongest since July 2022.
The PBOC has raised its daily midpoint fixing for eight consecutive sessions, the longest streak since 2023.
This means → the move is not a market accident. The central bank is laying a staircase, one step per day, guiding the currency stronger in an orderly fashion.
Why is this happening right now?
Trump and Xi hold a summit next week; trade friction is the central agenda item.
Western officials have long argued the renminbi is undervalued, giving Chinese exports a competitive edge and fuelling record trade surpluses.
In plain terms = a stronger renminbi is a goodwill chip placed on the table before talks begin — "we are not deliberately depressing our currency."
Where does the market see the renminbi heading?
Mizuho's Serena Zhou forecasts offshore renminbi at 6.70 by end-September and targets 6.65 by year-end.
She notes that appreciation expectations have become "increasingly self-reinforcing" — the more participants bet on a stronger yuan, the greater the settlement demand, and the stronger the currency gets.
This reflects Beijing's rising tolerance for gradual appreciation, which aligns with its strategic push for renminbi internationalisation.
Does the PBOC actually want a sustained rally?
A key detail: the daily fixing remains weaker than the spot rate, signalling that officials want a slow climb, not a sharp spike.
PBOC Deputy Governor Lu Lei said this month the central bank will firmly maintain exchange-rate stability through 2030 and stressed China has neither the need nor the intent to devalue for trade advantage.
In plain terms = the PBOC is pressing the accelerator and the brake at the same time — the direction is up, but the speed stays under its control.
How can the renminbi rally against a strong dollar?
The renminbi is heading for a seventh consecutive quarterly gain, making it Asia's best-performing currency this year.
Driving forces: robust exports + heavy corporate settlement demand. Even as Fed rate-hike bets push Treasury yields and the dollar higher — widening the US–China rate gap to a record — the trend has held.
RBC Capital Markets' Abbas Keshvani notes that China's relatively low dependence on imported energy and its strategic reserves, combined with the PBOC's track record of stabilising the currency in volatile periods, should keep the renminbi outperforming Asian peers.
What is the key variable to watch next?
The Trump–Xi summit outcome is the market's core watch-point next week — whether the renminbi has room to run depends on substantive progress on trade.
A conciliatory signal could accelerate the "self-reinforcing" appreciation cycle; a breakdown could trigger a tactical pullback.
This means → for ordinary investors, near-term FX risk on renminbi assets is falling, but the summit is the one variable that demands attention.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。