Zhang Yidong: September Is a Good Time to Position in Chinese Assets, Stock Market May Turn Around Within Two to Three Weeks
nashnova research
Strategist Zhang Yidong told the 2026 Financial Institutions Forum he is decisively bullish: Chinese equities could turn upward as soon as this week, or by late September after a US-China leadership meeting — rock-bottom sentiment is a positioning signal, not a retreat signal.
Why does he call "rock-bottom sentiment" good news?
Zhang labeled the current mood "freezing point" and argued that low risk appetite is not itself a problem.
This means → the June-to-August pullback was the product of three overlapping pressures: elevated risk appetite, crowded valuations, and tightening liquidity. Once those pressures clear, room opens up.
His timing is unusually specific: as early as this week, or after the late-September US-China leadership meeting.
Where is the liquidity inflection point?
Zhang expects the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise toward 5% in Q3, then fall back to roughly 4.3% in Q4.
In plain terms = the US long-bond yield acts as a global capital "water gauge." When it spikes and retreats, offshore money gets redirected toward Chinese assets.
He sees this setup as "very similar" to conditions just before the September 24, 2024 rally — offshore and domestic capital could resonate upward together.
AI and the Juglar cycle — what is the long-term case?
Zhang anchors the bull case to an AI-driven Juglar cycle — a roughly eight-year equipment-investment cycle.
This cycle bottomed in Q1 2021; ChatGPT's arrival in 2023 sharpened the direction. The peak may come around Q1 2028.
He compares AI in 2026 to the internet in 1998 — infrastructure has reached scale; application-layer expansion is about to accelerate broadly.
This reflects a core data point: US AI-related investment has grown at roughly 20% year-on-year for four to five quarters, while non-AI fixed-asset investment is in negative growth. AI is no longer a theme — it is embedded in the US macro economy.
How should investors read China's fundamentals?
Zhang warned against using traditional aggregate data — consumption, infrastructure spending, fixed-asset investment — to judge China's direction.
This means → the signal is in where the state channels resources first: the gap between high-tech industrial value-added and overall manufacturing keeps widening.
Integrated circuits, optical modules, and robotics are all gaining share as new growth drivers — these are the real directional indicators.
Will Beijing deliver a big stimulus?
Zhang stated plainly: do not expect large-scale aggregate stimulus. The policy line is "strengthen the foundation, seek progress in stability," built around new-quality productive forces — productivity driven by technology and innovation.
Put simply = Beijing will not flood the economy the old way; resources go to tech upgrading and industrial transformation.
The policy logic of using debt resolution to lift the capital market will remain a highlight for several quarters, potentially into H2 2027. Real estate has entered a trough zone but carries no systemic risk.
Which sectors deserve attention?
Tech track: the "fill the gap" theme — the domestic AI supply chain, semiconductors, and advanced-manufacturing overseas expansion.
Non-tech track: M&A restructuring and asset injection driving extensional growth, especially local state-owned enterprises finding new life.
Zhang closed with a classical allusion — autumn frost makes the leaves redder than spring flowers. September's gloom is the positioning window; whether the turnaround arrives in the next two to three weeks is the test of this call.
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