Analysts Raise 2026 Oil Price Forecasts, Brent Average Expected Near $90
nashnova research
A Reuters poll of 30 analysts lifted the 2026 Brent average forecast from $85 to $89 a barrel, driven by persistent disruption at the Strait of Hormuz — this means the global supply gap is unlikely to close soon, and geopolitical risk is now structurally embedded in oil prices.
How big is the upgrade?
The Brent 2026 average forecast rose from $85.08 to $89.05/bbl; WTI moved from $80.20 to $83.90.
The forecast range is wide: $77.27 at the low end, $97.60 at the high end. This means → analysts agree on direction (up) but disagree sharply on magnitude.
In plain terms = everyone expects pricier oil — the debate is whether it's a little pricier or a lot.
Why the upgrade — what is happening at Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil exports — faces ongoing disruption, and markets increasingly doubt a near-term full recovery.
DBS energy research head Suvro Sarkar: "We are not betting on a resolution within three to six months." If the situation escalates, forecasts face significant upside risk.
HSBC labels the strait's shipping conditions "structurally impaired", expecting flows to recover slowly but remain well below the pre-conflict level of 19–20 million barrels per day. This reflects a market that has stopped treating the strait as a temporary shock and started pricing it as a lasting supply discount.
Goldman says exports have recovered — so what's the worry?
Goldman estimates Gulf oil exports — including "dark fleet" shipments with transponders off — rebounded to 23.3 million bpd last week, matching the 2025 full-year average. September volumes doubled from prior levels.
Yet analysts broadly argue recovered volumes ≠ eliminated risk. In plain terms = the oil is moving, but it's moving nervously — insurance premiums and rerouting costs remain elevated.
This means → the data-level "recovery" has not genuinely calmed the market; a risk premium is still baked into the price.
Chinese inventories — the biggest unknown in the equation?
China built large strategic reserves before the conflict and drew them down steadily during it, reducing competitive purchases on the open market.
That trend is now reversing: August crude imports rose to nearly 9 million bpd — still below historical norms, but procurement is picking up.
Nomisma Energia president Davide Tabarelli: "Chinese inventories are finite — they cannot cover the entire winter." He expects purchases to strengthen further. This means → if China ramps up restocking into winter, it will add fresh demand pressure to an already tight supply picture.
Will prices just keep climbing?
Most analysts believe a slowing global economy will cap the upside. The Economist Intelligence Unit notes that weak manufacturing activity continues to drag on demand growth — even with geopolitical tensions, prices are unlikely to revisit the spike seen at the start of the conflict.
In plain terms = supply-side forces are pushing prices up while demand-side forces pull them down — a tug of war.
Looking into 2027, most analysts expect a return to oversupply: improving shipping conditions + Gulf output recovery + non-OPEC supply growth. Whether Chinese stockpiles last through the winter peak and whether Hormuz shipping conditions materially improve are the two checkpoints that will validate or break these forecasts.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。