Bernstein: Samsung's Q3 HBM Revenue May Reach $11.4 Billion, Up 72% QoQ
nashnova research
Bernstein's Korea export tracker puts Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue at roughly $11.4 billion, up 72% quarter-on-quarter and 23% above its prior forecast — driven by an earlier-than-expected HBM4 ramp.
Where does the $11.4 billion figure come from?
Bernstein ran a regression on Korea's July–August export data and estimates Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue at about $11.4 billion, up 72% QoQ — well above its earlier $9.3 billion call.
In August, multi-chip memory exports from Chungcheongnam-do — Bernstein's proxy for Samsung HBM shipments — rebounded 30% MoM to $2.8 billion, up 61% from May.
Samsung's HBM exports skew heavily toward the final month of each quarter — the first month has averaged under 20% of the full quarter since Q1 2025. This means → September still has room to run, and the $11.4 billion estimate may prove conservative.
Why the sudden beat? HBM4 ramped early
The per-kilogram value of Chungcheongnam-do multi-chip memory exports rose another 8% MoM in August, reaching 2.2× the April level. This means → Samsung is shipping not just more volume but higher-value product — HBM4, the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory, carries significantly higher prices than HBM3 and HBM3E.
Samsung's own guidance called for Q3 HBM4 sales to more than triple QoQ, with HBM4 accounting for over 60% of total HBM sales by H2 2026. The export data broadly tracks that guidance.
In plain terms = Samsung moved the newest, most expensive product to market first — higher prices times higher volumes drove the beat.
Why is SK Hynix lagging for now?
SK Hynix's proxy exports are softer: August shipments rose just 7% MoM and fell 21% from May. Bernstein's regression puts its Q3 HBM revenue at about $5.9 billion, down roughly 14% QoQ.
Bernstein cautions that export data cannot fully capture SK Hynix's HBM revenue, and model uncertainty is high. If SK Hynix follows its historical pattern of back-loaded quarterly shipments, Q3 revenue could reach about $7.5 billion and turn positive QoQ.
This reflects a difference in ramp timing, not capability. Samsung pushed HBM4 out earlier; as SK Hynix scales its own HBM4 later this year, the share picture could shift again.
Where are exports going? The Malaysia signal
Korea's HBM-related exports to Malaysia rose 22% MoM in August to about $1.6 billion, accounting for roughly 33% of all HBM-related exports. Over the past six months, monthly exports averaged about $0.9 billion to Malaysia versus $3.7 billion to Taiwan.
Bernstein links the Malaysia demand to Intel's EMIB advanced packaging — a technology that stitches different chip modules together — noting that Intel operates high-end packaging facilities there.
About 40% of Samsung's proxy exports flow to Malaysia, versus roughly 24% for SK Hynix's proxy regions. This means → the geography of advanced packaging capacity is reshaping HBM trade flows.
What comes next?
Bernstein stays positive on DRAM and on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron over the medium to long term, citing rising conventional memory prices, clear capital-return policies, and long-term supply agreements.
Whether 2027 HBM contract-price negotiations deliver a meaningful price increase is the key checkpoint for the next leg of memory-sector earnings.
In plain terms = short term, Samsung leads on its HBM4 head start; medium term, watch whether SK Hynix closes the gap; long term, the real test is whether the whole industry can lock premium pricing into contracts.
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