BIS General Manager: Second-Round Inflationary Effects of Iran War Energy Shock Remain Moderate So Far
nashnova research
BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos said Friday that the energy-price surge triggered by the Iran war has produced only mild second-round inflation effects so far — but whether that holds will shape how fast central banks move next.
What are "second-round effects," and why do they matter more than the oil price itself?
The oil-price jump is the "first round" — it pushes up petrol and electricity bills directly. Second-round effects are what happen next: whether wages, rents, and service prices start rising in sympathy.
This means → if second-round effects take hold, inflation is no longer just "oil got expensive" — it becomes broad-based price pressure, forcing central banks to hike harder.
De Cos's assessment: second-round effects remain mild for now — the oil shock has not spread widely into wages and services.
What kind of shock is this?
De Cos classified the Middle East conflict as a negative supply shock — prices are rising not because demand is too strong, but because supply has been disrupted.
In plain terms = people aren't scrambling to buy more oil; there is simply less of it at the source. Rate hikes can't fix a supply shortfall directly — central banks can only try to stop it from spreading to other prices.
Why are central banks responding at different speeds?
De Cos noted that global central banks are not moving in lockstep: some acted quickly, supported by strong domestic demand; others took a more gradual approach.
This means → the hotter a country's economy, the more likely its central bank moves fast; weaker economies lean toward waiting, wary that aggressive hikes could hurt growth.
This reflects a widening policy-path divergence under the same energy shock — investors cannot assume all central banks will act in sync.
What role does central-bank credibility play here?
De Cos stressed that central-bank credibility — built on clear mandates, independence, and accountability — is critical for both monetary policy and financial stability.
In plain terms = if markets trust that a central bank can and will control inflation, businesses and workers are less likely to raise prices pre-emptively, and second-round effects stay contained on their own.
He added that continuously updating analytical tools will significantly shape central banks' policy reaction functions — the data and models they use to decide whether to hike or cut.
Could macro-prudential policy and monetary policy clash?
De Cos said macro-prudential policy — tools designed to prevent systemic financial risk, such as loan-to-value caps and bank capital requirements — and monetary policy are broadly compatible in their objectives.
Trade-offs exist, but they have been managed in a "relatively adequate" manner in the past.
This means → in the BIS's view, hiking rates to fight inflation and safeguarding financial stability are not fundamentally in conflict right now — but if second-round effects intensify, that balance could break.
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