BNP Paribas: Microsoft Azure Pricing to Rise Gradually, Potential SpaceX Compute Partnership May Be Announced
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After meeting Microsoft management, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski says Azure's pricing uplift will drip in as contracts renew, not arrive as a near-term step-up — while an undenied SpaceX compute rumor gives the market two catalysts to watch.
Azure raised prices — why doesn't the revenue show it yet?
Pricing resets only when individual contracts renew, not across the board at once. This means → the revenue benefit seeps in quarter by quarter, with no visible jump on any single earnings report.
Slowinski stresses that management was explicit: Azure's recent acceleration to the mid-40s % growth range is driven by higher compute utilization and continued capacity expansion, not by pricing.
In plain terms = the price hike is loaded ammunition that hasn't been fired yet. Current growth comes from running existing machines harder and building more of them.
SpaceX supplying compute to Microsoft — how real is it?
Two data points feed the rumor: Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh hinted at a partnership; SpaceX recently disclosed a new compute client expected to spend roughly $1 billion per month starting this December.
Microsoft management declined to comment on specific vendors but reiterated the company is still in "catch-up mode", actively seeking incremental compute — and finding near-term infrastructure that meets its specs notably scarce.
Slowinski's read: "We did not get confirmation, but we would not be surprised by a future announcement." This reflects just how hungry Microsoft is for capacity — even without naming SpaceX, the logic points squarely in that direction.
The OpenAI revenue-share deal — what are the actual terms?
Microsoft confirmed the revenue-sharing cap with OpenAI is $38 billion.
Management specifically clarified that OpenAI's share is not behind Azure's recent outperformance. This means → Azure's own growth is "clean" — not inflated by the OpenAI pass-through.
The company pledged to disclose explicitly if and when the OpenAI arrangement becomes a material upside driver. In plain terms = OpenAI's contribution to Azure's P&L is still small; when it gets big, Microsoft says it will tell you.
The 38 GW expansion plan and the investment rating — what to make of them?
Recent reports suggest Microsoft plans to scale data-center capacity to 38 gigawatts by 2032, but management's tone was reserved — stopping short of full confirmation.
Slowinski maintains a "Buy" rating on Microsoft with a $549 price target.
Two milestones will test whether Azure's growth story holds: ① when the pricing uplift actually hits reported revenue; ② whether the SpaceX compute partnership materializes.
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