BofA Bullish on Copper and Uranium, High Rates Weigh on Gold
nashnova research
Bank of America analyst Lawson Winder raised copper-price forecasts and reaffirmed a bullish uranium outlook, while warning that high U.S. rates will keep the dollar strong and cap gold — three metals, three directions, one shared driver: power demand.
Why is BofA raising its copper forecast now?
BofA lifted its 2026 average copper price by 3% to $13,278 per tonne and its long-term forecast by 20% to $13,578.
This means → BofA sees copper as a structural shortage story, not a short-term trade — constrained supply meets surging grid demand.
The bolder call: BofA projects 2027 average copper at $15,250 per tonne, roughly 15% above the current forecast.
Which copper stock does BofA prefer — and why?
BofA named Freeport-McMoRan its top copper pick, raising the target from $80 to $87.
Two reasons: Grasberg mine operations are improving, and the company's production growth path is clear.
In plain terms = Freeport has the mine, the mine is getting better, and output is rising — in a tight copper market, that makes it the most direct beneficiary.
How does the uranium thesis differ from copper?
BofA trimmed its 2026 uranium forecast slightly to ~$97 per pound but held its 2027 forecast at ~$130 — about 45% above spot prices cited in the report.
This means → BofA sees near-term pressure on uranium but no change to the long-term bull case: the nuclear-build cycle is just starting.
Its top uranium pick is Cameco, rated Buy with a $133 target. Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse gives it exposure to both rising uranium prices and nuclear-plant construction.
Why is gold the odd one out?
BofA is cautious on gold. The chain: high rates → strong dollar → capped gold prices.
In plain terms = when rates are high, holding dollars already pays a return — money has little incentive to chase a non-yielding asset like gold.
At the stock level, BofA downgraded Kinross Gold to Underperform and Alamos Gold to Neutral — both cuts.
What assumption ties all three calls together?
The bull case for both copper and uranium rests on one shared premise: sustained high growth in global power demand.
This reflects BofA's deeper view — grid expansion and data-center electricity consumption are the most important commodity demand drivers for the next several years.
The risk sits here too: if power-demand growth disappoints or supply ramps faster than expected, the price thesis for both copper and uranium weakens.
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