BofA Survey: Fund Managers' Tech Overweight Rises to Highest Since 2020
nashnova research
BofA's latest fund-manager survey shows the global tech overweight rose to 37%, the highest since August 2020 — yet nearly half of respondents expect an AI bubble by 2027, splitting the market's conviction down the middle.
How crowded is the tech trade?
The share of fund managers overweight tech climbed from 30% to 37% month-on-month, a near-six-year high. This means → almost 4 in every 10 global fund managers are actively adding tech exposure, matching the concentration seen during the 2020 pandemic tech rally.
Respondents named global semiconductor stocks the single most crowded trade. In plain terms = everyone knows the lane is packed, yet they keep piling in — classic fear of missing out.
AI bubble — will it actually happen?
Roughly 45% of managers expect an AI bubble by 2027; 42% disagree. This means → professional investors are almost evenly split, with no consensus in sight.
Over the past four years, the AI trade has driven the S&P 500 up nearly 120%. But enthusiasm has cooled as investors question whether heavy capex will ever deliver matching returns.
This reflects a core tension: money is still flowing in, yet conviction is cracking — the market sits in an awkward state of bullish positioning but skeptical expectations.
Why are bonds stealing the spotlight?
Bearish sentiment on bonds fell to its lowest since May 2025, a clear warming in attitude.
About 37% of respondents said a 10-year Treasury yield of 6% would trigger a rotation from equities into bonds; another 19% said they have already begun adjusting. This means → more than half of surveyed managers have mentally drawn a "retreat line."
At the time of the survey, the 10-year yield stood at 5.19%. In plain terms = that psychological 6% threshold is less than one percentage point away — bonds are shifting from "nobody wants them" to "seriously considering."
How much weight does this survey carry?
The survey ran from October 2 to 8, covering 161 fund managers with combined AUM of $453 billion.
Whether tech positioning can hold at this concentration, and when AI capex begins to pay off, are the key tests for market structure ahead. In plain terms = the central question is simple: will the money already committed actually earn its return.
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