BofA: Tech Stocks May See a Blowoff Top Before Yields Suppress Growth; Bonds Still Under Pressure
nashnova research
BofA notes US nominal GDP rose 63% over six years while 30-year Treasury prices fell 60%; the long-equities, short-bonds playbook holds until higher yields actually drag on growth — and tech could hit a blow-off top first.
GDP up 63%, Treasuries down 60% — what does that gap mean?
Over the past six years, US nominal GDP rose 63% while the 30-year Treasury price fell 60%.
This means → the economy expanded, but lenders to the government lost money — bond holders effectively funded this boom.
BofA calls this pair of numbers the decade's "market scoreboard": fiscal expansion, political populism, deglobalisation, resource competition, and the trade-and-AI race all pushing in the same direction — hot economy, cold bonds.
Why can the long-stocks, short-bonds trade keep running?
BofA's core call: as long as higher yields have not actually slowed growth, investors will stay long equities and short bonds.
In plain terms = rates are rising, but corporate profits and consumer spending still hold up — the market has not hit the turn yet.
BofA expects US tech stocks may produce a blow-off top — a surge to extreme highs before peaking — while bond yields could stage a similarly extreme move upward.
Where did the old playbook flip?
BofA frames today's macro regime as a full reversal of the prior decade: demand-side stimulus gave way to supply constraints, elite consensus to visible fiscal aggression, open-border globalisation to national-security screening and border controls.
This reflects a deeper shift: the three pillars that lifted assets for a decade — low rates, globalisation, tech concentration — are being pulled out one by one.
In plain terms = the old formula was "print money + open borders + bet on tech giants"; the new one is "fiscal spending + build walls + re-shore capacity."
Where is the investment leadership moving?
BofA sees leadership rotating away from the Magnificent Seven concentration toward AI capex, industrial and defence capacity, banks, gold, and assets tied to global rebalancing.
This means → tech is not dead tomorrow, but the old regime's winners are no longer the default — the risk of blindly betting on US exceptionalism is rising.
The key verification point: when the rise in long-end yields shifts from "asset repricing" to "real-economy slowdown" — that is when the equity-bond relationship and sector-rotation logic face a real test.
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