BofA Warns of ASML's Entry into Hybrid Bonding, Downgrades Besi and Halves Target Price
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Bank of America downgraded Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker Besi from buy to neutral and cut its target price nearly in half, citing ASML's public intent to enter the hybrid-bonding market — a direct competitive threat to the growth story at the heart of Besi's valuation.
What exactly did BofA say?
BofA analysts on Tuesday cut Besi to neutral from buy and slashed the target price by roughly half.
The core reason: fellow Dutch firm ASML has publicly signaled interest in entering hybrid bonding — an advanced packaging process that joins two chip surfaces directly, skipping the metal bumps in between.
The report states plainly: the competitive threat and the risk that Besi may need to ramp R&D spending significantly are not yet priced in.
This means → BofA is not claiming ASML will definitely take share. The argument is simpler: the uncertainty alone is enough to cap Besi's valuation — and it won't lift until ASML's plans become clear.
How central is hybrid bonding to Besi?
Hybrid bonding is Besi's single most important growth driver. Bernstein analysts estimate that by 2028, three-quarters of all hybrid-bonding equipment shipped globally could come from Besi.
Besi's own bull case: cumulative shipments of over 2,000 hybrid-bonding systems by 2030. Yet as of end-2025, cumulative orders barely topped 150 units.
In plain terms = the growth curve from 150 to 2,000 units is the pillar holding up Besi's entire valuation story. If a competitor carves away even part of that curve, the story reprices.
Why could ASML credibly enter this market?
The biggest bottleneck in hybrid bonding today is low yield — stacking multiple logic or memory chips demands extreme precision, and manufacturers struggle to produce enough good units consistently.
ASML's potential edge sits precisely here: decades of expertise in high-precision, high-throughput lithography make alignment accuracy its home turf.
ASML shipped its first advanced-packaging product last year. In April, CEO Christophe Fouquet told analysts the company would continue to "explore opportunities to support customers" in hybrid bonding.
This means → ASML is not just talking — a product has shipped and management is on the record. The signal is more concrete than the market had assumed.
What is the stock already pricing in?
Besi shares fell as much as 6.4% intraday on Tuesday.
The stock was already the worst performer in the Stoxx 600 for the third quarter, down roughly a third over the period — though it remains up about 45% year-to-date.
Another drag on the shares: concern that memory-chip makers may delay adoption of hybrid bonding.
In plain terms = the sell-off is not about ASML alone. The rollout pace of hybrid bonding itself is slowing, and two negatives stacking together explain a one-third quarterly decline.
What is the next catalyst to watch?
BofA stressed it is not assuming ASML will capture meaningful market share — but the uncertainty alone is enough to weigh on Besi's multiple.
Neither Besi nor ASML commented on the report.
This reflects a single validation point that will reprice the stock: whether ASML can actually convert its lithography-precision advantage into packaging market share. Until that question has an answer, Besi's valuation ceiling is hard to lift.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。