BOJ Deputy Governor: AI May Push Up Neutral Interest Rate
nashnova research
BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said AI is putting upward pressure on inflation and long-term rates, potentially forcing central banks to raise the neutral rate — but the long-run impact remains impossible to quantify.
How does AI connect to interest rates?
Uchida framed AI as a massive positive demand shock — governments and firms are piling in, pushing up economic activity and prices.
This means → the neutral rate — the equilibrium rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy — may need to move higher.
He added that AI could also lift productivity and expand the capital stock on the supply side, positively affecting r-star (the natural rate of interest). In plain terms = AI is simultaneously spending money that drives prices up and creating efficiency that could bring costs down — two forces pulling in opposite directions.
What is the financial market already feeling?
AI demand has lifted equity prices, loosening financial conditions; but tech firms issuing bonds at scale have pushed up long-end yields, tightening conditions.
In plain terms = stocks rose, making money "looser"; bond rates rose, making money "tighter" — the two forces are working against each other, and the net effect is hard to call.
This reflects a key reality: AI's impact on the financial system is not one-directional — it is sending both easing and tightening signals at the same time.
What does this mean for ordinary people?
Uchida warned that AI could rapidly make some cognitive skills obsolete, with those who have technical adaptability gaining far more than others.
This means → AI is not just a macroeconomic variable — it could directly widen social inequality.
He acknowledged the conflicting effects are still impossible to quantify: "We do not yet have a clear answer."
Where does the BOJ go from here?
The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September; markets widely expect another hike this year.
Uchida's core signal: the neutral rate itself is uncertain, and the pricing of the terminal rate still has significant room for disagreement.
This means → when markets bet on where the BOJ will stop hiking, inflation data alone is not enough — AI's structural reshaping of the economy is making that question harder to answer.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。