China Resumes Refined Fuel Exports in October with Quota of About 3.7 Million Tons
nashnova research
China will resume exporting diesel, gasoline and jet fuel in October after a brief Golden Week pause, with a quota of roughly 3.7 million tonnes — but analysts say the volume falls short of what is needed to meaningfully ease the global fuel crunch triggered by the Middle East war.
How much is China exporting, and is it less than last month?
Two industry sources say Beijing has approved about 3.7 million tonnes of combined diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports for October.
September exports are estimated at just over 4 million tonnes. This means → the October quota is roughly 7% lower month-on-month — not a simple return to prior levels.
During the Golden Week holiday, China withheld export permits from major refiners (except for Hong Kong and Macau routes); the resumption follows the holiday's end.
Why has China been restricting fuel exports at all?
In March, the US-Israeli war against Iran disrupted crude flows and refinery operations. China tightened fuel-export controls to secure domestic supply first.
In plain terms = when global crude supply broke down, Beijing chose to keep enough fuel at home before selling any abroad.
Controls were gradually eased from July through September; the October quota extends that loosening trend — but at a smaller scale.
How tight is the global fuel market right now?
The Middle East war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are squeezing global refined-fuel capacity simultaneously. Diesel prices have been hit hardest.
China operates the world's largest refining capacity, making its fuel exports highly sought after — especially across Asia.
This reflects a structural reality: when the Middle East and Russia both cut output, Chinese refineries become the global fuel market's swing supplier.
What do analysts think — is 3.7 million tonnes enough?
Stuti Jhunjhunwala, oil-market analyst at Energy Aspects, said the impact would be "limited, because the overall market remains tight and Middle East supply is still disrupted."
June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, noted that the resumption was expected but the export volume fell below market expectations.
This means → the market had hoped for a bigger quota to ease the squeeze; 3.7 million tonnes is a drop in the bucket.
What is the IEA doing — are there other supply levers?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week agreed to accelerate the release of member states' oil reserves, prioritising diesel supply under a plan launched in March.
In plain terms = China is not the only one adding fuel to the market — Western nations are also tapping strategic reserves to contain prices.
Whether the 3.7-million-tonne quota can meaningfully close the global fuel gap remains to be seen — China's NDRC and Ministry of Commerce have not commented.
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