China's Bulk Commodity Price Index Rose 4.1% MoM in September, Led by Energy and Chemicals
nashnova research
China's CBPI hit 137.6 in September, up 4.1% month-on-month and 22.9% year-on-year, with energy and chemicals surging 14.8% and 13.7% respectively; peak-season demand and Middle East geopolitical risk are lifting upstream prices, but downstream manufacturers face growing cost-pass-through pressure.
How much did it rise — and why?
The September CBPI came in at 137.6, up 4.1% MoM and 22.9% YoY — all three readings are accelerating.
CFLP cited three drivers: the traditional construction peak season, faster rollout of major projects, and sustained improvement in manufacturing output and demand.
This means → both supply and demand are firing at once, setting a foundation for a stable Q4.
But CFLP also flagged a warning: external imported risks remain elevated, and fast-rising raw-material costs are already squeezing downstream margins.
Which sectors surged the most?
Energy led all sectors: up 14.8% MoM and 33.4% YoY. CFLP attributed this to volatile Middle East dynamics — Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intersecting with US–Iran negotiations — pushing global energy prices higher.
Chemicals followed closely: up 13.7% MoM and 36.6% YoY.
Non-ferrous metals extended their rally: up 1.6% MoM and 26.7% YoY.
In plain terms = the closer a commodity sits to the upstream raw-material end, the sharper the price spike; the closer to the end consumer, the milder the gain.
What is falling?
Ferrous metals (steel-related) rose just 0.5%; minerals rebounded 0.3%; agricultural products edged up 0.2% — YoY, these three logged +2.1%, −5.4%, and −1.2% respectively.
Of 50 key-tracked commodities, 38 rose (76%), 11 fell (22%), and 1 was flat.
Top three gainers: methanol +39.5%, ethylene glycol +24.8%, coke +20.4%. Top three decliners: lithium carbonate −8.8%, refined tin −3.7%, corrugated paper −3.4%.
This means → the continued slide in lithium carbonate — a core raw material for EV batteries — may signal a deepening structural split in new-energy demand.
How are external variables shaping the picture?
China and the US completed their eighth round of trade talks and agreed on a reciprocal tariff-reduction package worth roughly $30 billion, covering agricultural products, coal, and other commodities — a stabiliser for trade flows and market expectations.
On the other side: the Fed resumed rate hikes for the first time in three years, driven by rising inflation pressure and elevated global energy prices, putting base-metal prices under strain worldwide.
In plain terms = the trade channel is loosening while the monetary channel is tightening — the two forces offset each other, so commodities are unlikely to move in one direction only.
What to watch in Q4?
CFLP flagged two core variables: ① whether the sharp upstream price gains in energy and chemicals can pass through to downstream sectors; ② whether sustained declines in lithium carbonate and similar commodities signal accelerating demand-structure divergence.
This reflects the market's central tension right now: upstream prices surge → midstream margins compress → can downstream absorb the cost?
If pass-through stalls, downstream profits will be squeezed further. If it succeeds, end-consumer prices face upward pressure.
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