China's Gold Purchases Exceed 1,000 Tonnes This Year Setting a Record, While India Tightens Precious Metal Import Taxes
nashnova research
China imported more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in the first eight months of the year, spending a record $158.8 billion — already far exceeding full-year 2025. Meanwhile India hiked gold import duties from 6% to 15% and urged citizens to stop buying. The world's two largest gold consumers are moving in opposite directions, reshaping the supply-demand floor under prices.
$158.8 billion on gold — what is China buying?
In the first eight months of 2026, China imported over 1,000 tonnes of gold, spending $158.8 billion — well above the 886 tonnes / $96.5 billion for all of 2025.
This means → in just eight months, spending exceeded last year's full total by more than 60%. The pace is accelerating, not slowing.
The buying is driven by both the central bank and private investors. China's U.S. Treasury holdings have fallen to $618 billion, the lowest since August 2008. In plain terms = money is moving from Treasuries to gold — "de-dollarization" is no longer a slogan but a measurable capital flow.
Gold has doubled in price — why keep buying?
Gold climbed from roughly $2,625/oz in early 2025 to a peak of $5,595 in January 2026. China slowed purchases during last year's surge.
The renewed acceleration this year shows Chinese buyers are willing to allocate at current high prices. This reflects a shift in motive — from "buy the dip" to "hold for the long term."
Lisa Liu, Managing Director at Zijin Mining's Gold Hill Asset Management, put it directly: "This is not a short-term trade — it is a multi-year reallocation of household and official assets."
Why is India moving in the opposite direction?
In mid-May 2026, India raised the effective import duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15% (10% basic duty + 5% agriculture-infrastructure cess). Platinum duties rose in step.
The latest move scraps the IGST (Integrated Goods and Services Tax) exemption that banks and designated agencies previously enjoyed on precious-metals imports. Officials framed it as "tax fairness."
In plain terms = India still wants gold, but its foreign-exchange reserves and the rupee cannot absorb the outflow — every tonne imported drains dollars. The government chose to hit the brakes. Prime Minister Modi publicly urged citizens to avoid buying gold for a year.
One buyer in, one out — what does this mean for gold prices?
Global gold ETF holdings have risen for several consecutive weeks and now exceed the pre-Iran-war peak.
Bloomberg analyst Garfield Reynolds noted that October's market backdrop favors gold: rate traders widely expect the Fed to delay any hike until December at the earliest, and central-bank buying shows no sign of easing.
This means → China's continued accumulation, combined with global ETF inflows, is enough to offset India's demand contraction in the near term. Christopher Hamilton, Head of Client Solutions for Invesco Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan), observed that gold's sensitivity to rising real rates has "markedly declined" — "holding physical assets is a reasonable choice in the current environment."
What is the real signal to watch?
Liu's core judgment: "As long as growth and geopolitical uncertainty persist, the scale and persistence of China's gold buying will be the primary driver of global gold prices."
This reflects a deeper structural shift: gold is evolving from a "safe-haven trade" into a "reserve asset." When the buyers are central banks and long-duration allocators, the depth of price pullbacks gets compressed.
The divergence to track: China's sustained accumulation vs. India's policy-driven suppression vs. synchronized global ETF inflows. The net direction of these three forces determines where gold's next price plateau sits.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。