CICC: A-Shares May See a Strong Post-Holiday Opening; Medium-Term Outlook Remains Optimistic
nashnova research
CICC says A-shares are poised for a post-holiday bounce — overseas markets rallied during the break, stimulus policies landed in quick succession, and Q3 earnings may provide support. Investor confidence could recover through October, with medium-term valuations still attractive.
Why did A-shares slip before the holiday — and why might they bounce back?
Pre-holiday weakness came from three external drags: escalating Middle East tensions, surging U.S. Treasury yields, and persistent Fed rate-hike expectations.
During the break, the picture flipped: the S&P 500 rose 2.2% and the Nasdaq gained 2.8%, hitting a record high.
This means → the external headwinds that weighed on sentiment are easing, at least for now. Combined with fresh domestic policy support, the stage is set for a relief rally.
What did holiday spending data actually show?
Travel volumes held steady: 1.77 billion cross-regional trips in the first six days, down just 0.2% year-on-year; rail passengers hit 130 million, up 9.7%.
Box-office receipts disappointed: just over RMB 1 billion through October 6 — well below last year's RMB 2.1 billion and the prior year's RMB 1.84 billion.
Offline retail was resilient: footfall and sales at 78 key commercial districts rose 3.4% and 5.3% respectively; trade-in subsidies drove RMB 19.63 billion in sales.
In plain terms = travel and in-store spending were decent, but weak ticket sales dragged the headline — a recovery with warmth, not heat.
What stimulus measures just landed?
The Ministry of Finance, PBOC, and financial regulator jointly launched a mortgage interest subsidy: effective October 1, homebuyers receive a 1-percentage-point annual subsidy on loan principal for up to five years, capped at RMB 1 million per household.
The PBOC also boosted monetary tools: PSL — pledged supplementary lending — rates cut by 25 basis points; tech-innovation relending quota raised by RMB 200 billion with the support ratio lifted from 60% to 100%; agricultural and small-business relending quota raised by RMB 500 billion.
This means → fiscal subsidies directly lower housing costs, while monetary tools inject liquidity into tech and small business — a coordinated "easy fiscal + easy monetary" push.
How solid are the macro fundamentals?
September manufacturing PMI — the monthly gauge of factory-sector health — rose to 50.1%, climbing for two straight months back into expansion territory.
Year-to-date industrial profits grew 15.7%, but the pace slowed by 1.9 percentage points from the January–July reading; August alone grew just 4.2%, down 7 points from July.
This reflects a manufacturing sector improving at the margin, but corporate earnings growth is decelerating. Whether Q3 results confirm an "earnings inflection" will be the key test for sustained confidence.
What overseas variables still matter?
U.S. September non-farm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below August's revised 133,000 — expectations for a Fed rate hike in October cooled sharply.
August core PCE — personal consumption expenditure excluding food and energy — rose 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3%. Inflation pressure is easing.
Yet the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% on October 5, a high not seen since 2002 — still a weight on global risk assets.
On trade, China and the U.S. reached a framework to cut tariffs on $30 billion in goods symmetrically, exempting over 90% of products from all reciprocal tariffs.
What does CICC recommend buying?
Theme one: high-growth momentum — AI supply-chain segments with firm demand and tight capacity: optical communications, semiconductor equipment, upstream power-bottleneck plays, plus innovative pharma (especially CXO) and grid equipment.
Theme two: cyclical recovery — industries where the capacity cycle points to improving supply-demand dynamics: chemicals, petrochemicals, construction machinery, and non-ferrous metals.
In plain terms = one bet rides "new sectors can't keep up with demand"; the other rides "old sectors are bottoming out" — but non-ferrous metals carry Fed-tightening risk that could hit prices.
With the Q3 reporting window approaching, whether policy effects translate into actual earnings will determine how far this confidence recovery runs.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。