CICC Forecasts September PPI Rising to 4.5%, Export Growth Remains Elevated
nashnova research
CICC expects China's September PPI to reach 4.5% year-on-year — a new 2026 high — while export growth holds at 24.9%; this means energy price surges and the AI export boom are lifting the supply side and external demand simultaneously, even as domestic consumption stays sluggish.
Why would PPI hit a new year-high?
The main driver is the energy chain. Repeated Middle East geopolitical flare-ups have pushed up crude-oil risk premiums; September Brent averaged near $100/barrel, pulling domestic diesel and other refined-product prices higher.
Coal supply has been slow to recover and port inventories keep drawing down, pushing coal prices up too. This means → two major upstream energy inputs are repricing at the same time, giving PPI a "twin engine."
September's PMI raw-material purchase-price index hit 60.8% and the ex-factory price index 54.0%, up 4.2 and 3.6 points month-on-month — implying a PPI month-on-month reading of roughly 0.7%, nearly double August's 0.4%.
Beyond energy, how are other industrial goods doing?
Non-ferrous metals (copper, etc.): mine-side supply stays tight, copper trades in a high range, and the sector's PPI year-on-year gain remains elevated.
Ferrous metals (steel): coking-coal and coke price rises support steel-mill costs, but end-demand from property and infrastructure remains limited. Rebar bounced early in the month, then drifted lower. In plain terms = upstream costs rose but downstream can't pass them on — steel-mill margins are squeezed from both ends.
Building materials (cement, glass): higher coal costs plus seasonal construction pick-up stabilized cement prices; float glass edged up on restocking demand, though the move was modest.
What is keeping export growth near 25%?
CICC forecasts September exports at 24.9% year-on-year, virtually flat versus August's 25.0%. Overseas manufacturing remains robust — the U.S. S&P Manufacturing PMI rose 3.1 points to 57.0% in September.
The AI supply chain is the key incremental driver. South Korea's working-day-adjusted daily exports grew 89.7% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September; semiconductor daily exports surged 282% and imports 101%, both accelerating from August. This means → the global AI hardware capex cycle is still speeding up, and China as a core supply-chain node continues to benefit.
Two deceleration signals, however: last year's base is rising, and September's PMI new-export-orders sub-index slipped 0.1 point to 50.0% — right on the expansion-contraction line.
Why is domestic demand still "warm but not hot"?
Retail sales growth is expected to tick up only slightly, from 0.4% in August to 0.5% in September. Durable-goods spending remains under pressure: the passenger-car association forecasts September narrow-passenger-vehicle retail sales down 24.7% year-on-year, a wider decline than August's 23.6%; major home-appliance sales also fell more sharply.
The bright spot is offline services: hotel RevPAR — revenue per available room, 4-week moving average — narrowed its year-on-year decline versus August, and foot traffic in urban commercial districts grew faster. In plain terms = consumers are willing to dine out and shop, but not yet ready to spend on cars or appliances.
Fixed-asset investment for January–September is projected at -7.0% year-on-year (prior: -7.2%), a marginal narrowing. Manufacturing and infrastructure are the main supports, while property development investment is expected to slide further to roughly -21.4%.
What does the full picture tell us?
CICC projects Q3 GDP growth at 4.5% year-on-year, up from Q2's 4.3% — but the improvement is driven by exports and energy-price-led industrial output, not a domestic-demand recovery.
This reflects a "hot outside, cold inside" economy: external demand is buoyed by the AI cycle, while property and durable-goods consumption remain drags.
The key variable for Q4: whether PPI can keep breaking its yearly high, and how far energy-price increases transmit downstream — that will determine whether corporate profit divergence widens further or begins to converge.
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