Citadel Securities Strategist: Retail Funds to Flow Back into U.S. Stocks in Q4
nashnova research
Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner says retail investors are set to 'reload' into US equities in Q4 after September's deep pullback — trading volume has dropped 26% from June's peak, opening room for a rebound.
How cold did September actually get?
Cash equity volume fell to 0.94× the trailing-year average — a low not seen since 2026.
Retail options premiums (the price paid to buy an option contract) dropped to the same 0.94× level.
Equity trading activity slid 26% from the June peak; options premiums shrank roughly a third from June's 1.41×.
This means → retail didn't just trim — they stepped back across the board. Volume and options declining in lockstep signals genuine capital withdrawal.
Why does Rubner see this as a positive?
His core logic: positions have been cleared, valuations have pulled back, and "the room to rebuild exposure has expanded significantly."
In plain terms = September squeezed out the froth. Q4 buyers start from a cleaner, lower base — they are not buying at the top.
He points to two catalysts for re-entry: the start of earnings season and the resumption of corporate buybacks (companies repurchasing their own shares).
He also warns that October could still bring volatility — a return of capital does not mean a straight-line rally.
What does the seasonal pattern say?
Rubner cites four years of data: cash trading volume rises an average of roughly 8% from September to October.
Options activity over the past three years rose an average of roughly 15% over the same period.
This means → even without this year's unusual washout, seasonal momentum alone supports a volume rebound in October.
What does JPMorgan's data confirm?
JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain's team called September the quietest cash-equity month since December 2024.
Last week's fund inflows sat at just the 12th percentile historically — only 12% of past readings were weaker.
This reflects two firms, using different datasets, reaching the same conclusion: September's cooldown was real and broad-based, not confined to a single sector.
Will retail money actually come back?
US equities fell across the board in September, weighed down by inflation fears and rising rate expectations.
Rubner reads this positively: the selloff was a healthy reset — "September accomplished most of the reset we wanted to see."
In plain terms = his bet is "it had to fall enough before it can rise," not "the headwinds have disappeared."
The verification window is clear: early earnings-season trading volumes will show directly whether retail is reloading on schedule.
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