Citi: China Battery Chain September Output Below Expectations, October Production Schedule Up 7% MoM
nashnova research
Citi's latest report shows China's top five battery makers missed already-lowered September production targets, dragged mainly by weak NCM battery demand; October production plans are up 7% month-on-month, but a full sector turnaround still needs order data to confirm.
Why did September output still miss lowered expectations?
ZE Consulting — a research firm tracking China's battery supply-chain production schedules — had already cut its September forecast, yet actual output still fell short of the revised target.
This means → real demand recovery was weaker than the market anticipated. The miss wasn't about over-forecasting; demand genuinely failed to show up.
The main drag came from EV power batteries, especially NCM cells (nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary batteries, one of the dominant chemistries in mid-to-high-end EVs).
What signal does the October production plan send?
The top five battery makers plan to raise October output by 7% month-on-month; cathode material plans are up 4%.
Anode material is roughly flat; the lithium segment expects a 1% MoM decline.
In plain terms = battery makers are ramping up, but upstream raw materials are not following suit — this tells us the recovery call is tentative, not an all-in bet.
Energy storage or EVs — which is the bigger drag?
Citi notes that energy-storage demand came in slightly below expectations, while EV demand is still in recovery mode.
Supply-chain repair signals have appeared, with marginal improvement in sector sentiment — meaning conditions are slightly better than the trough, but no clear upswing yet.
This means → a full reversal needs more order and output data to confirm. It is too early to call the turn.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。