Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise as Escalating Middle East Conflict Threatens Supply
nashnova research
Multiple Middle East flashpoints are escalating at once. Brent crude hit $106.65 a barrel — up more than 70% year-to-date — as Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and tanker rerouting around the Strait of Hormuz push supply-disruption risk from theoretical to real.
How much have prices moved, and what is driving them?
Brent December futures closed Monday at $106.65 a barrel, up 1.8% on the day and more than 70% year-to-date.
WTI November futures traded at $93.23 in early Singapore hours — down 0.5% from the prior session, which itself had rallied 2.1%.
This means → the rally is not demand-driven. It is supply-risk premium — the market is pricing in the possibility that Middle Eastern crude cannot physically get out.
What is happening in the Middle East, and why does it threaten oil supply?
Houthi forces — the Iran-backed militia in Yemen — launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on a major Saudi airport, directly threatening Gulf energy exports.
Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil — are escalating. More ships are now rerouting away from the UAE's key transit port.
In plain terms = the two routes for getting crude out of the Persian Gulf — the strait and the port — are both compromised. One is under attack; the other is being bypassed. Actual export volumes are shrinking.
Will the Saudi–Houthi conflict cool down or keep escalating?
The Saudi-led coalition recently launched a ground offensive to recapture Houthi-held territory in Yemen. The Houthis responded by striking Saudi airports and oil facilities.
This reflects a self-reinforcing escalation loop: one side attacks → the other retaliates → the cycle tightens. No off-ramp is visible in the near term.
This means → as long as the ground war continues, Houthi strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure will not stop. The supply risk is structural, not a one-off event.
Is the Russia–Ukraine "energy ceasefire" real?
President Trump claimed Russia and Ukraine had reached an "energy ceasefire." President Zelensky responded bluntly: Ukraine will keep striking back as long as Russia keeps hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Trump later acknowledged ceasefire violations and called on both sides to negotiate.
In plain terms = the "ceasefire" is currently a claim, not a fact. Neither side has actually stopped. The market cannot use it to mark down risk premium.
What should the market watch next?
Scott Shelton, energy specialist at brokerage TP ICAP, said it plainly: "The headlines over the past few days have been dizzying" — calling the week's opening "a mess."
Two variables now dominate: ① Can the Middle East conflict be contained short-term? ② Will Hormuz rerouting further squeeze actual Gulf crude export volumes?
This means → the answers to those two questions determine whether the supply-risk premium holds. If the conflict does not cool and rerouting becomes the norm, crude's upside is not exhausted.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。