Deutsche Bank: Copper Market Enters Supply Scramble Phase, 2027 Target Price at $22,050
nashnova research
Deutsche Bank expects copper to hit $22,050 per tonne by Q2 2027 — more than 50% above Monday's LME price. Analyst Daniel Ghali calls the current market a "historic metals scramble," driven not by demand growth but by buyers racing to lock up dwindling physical supply.
Why could copper rally another 50%?
Ghali's Q2 2027 target is $22,050/t. Monday's LME price was just $14,458.50 — a gap of over 50%.
The bull case rests not on surging demand but on rapidly shrinking available spot supply, as buyers scramble to secure physical metal.
This means → copper's pricing logic is shifting from "who buys the most" to "who can still buy at all." Any supply disruption gets amplified.
What does U.S. stockpiling mean for the rest of the world?
Deutsche Bank estimates that by year-end, copper inventories held by the U.S. and major Asian consumers could account for 71% of global supply.
In plain terms = physical copper is concentrating in two regions, leaving less and less spot metal for everyone else.
Even if the U.S. never imposes copper tariffs, the metal may not flow back. U.S. copper futures trade at a premium to LME, and LME operates warehouses on U.S. soil — once copper enters the American system, it tends to circulate domestically rather than re-enter the global market.
Could supply actually run out?
Ghali warns that if stockpiling continues, copper available to the rest of the world could be exhausted before the end of 2028.
That extreme scenario carries a built-in brake: once prices rise high enough, some users will switch to aluminium. Aluminium conducts less efficiently, but its cost advantage could drive substitution.
This reflects a key tension: current copper prices are not yet high enough to trigger large-scale substitution, so the supply squeeze keeps building.
What does Deutsche Bank's price path look like?
2027 average: $20,900/t, peaking at $22,050 in Q2.
2028 average: drops to $18,500/t — reflecting Deutsche Bank's expectation that the market gradually rebalances after extreme tightness.
Monday's LME copper fell 1.33% to $14,428.50. This means → if Deutsche Bank is right, the current price is still in the early stage of the up-cycle.
Which variables will decide the outcome?
Tariff policy: whether the U.S. imposes copper tariffs directly affects the incentive to stockpile and the global inventory split.
Refining capacity: any disruption to refined copper output would amplify price swings against an already-low inventory backdrop.
Demand durability: a global slowdown that dampens consumption would ease the supply squeeze.
Put simply = these three variables determine whether copper tightness stays at "elevated prices" or escalates into a genuine supply crisis.
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