Duan Yongping Adds 30,000 More Shares of Kweichow Moutai, Spending Over 36.9 Million Yuan
nashnova research
Veteran investor Duan Yongping disclosed on September 28 that he bought 30,000 shares of Kweichow Moutai at an average price of RMB 1,230 — spending over RMB 36.9 million in at least his third public top-up this year, doubling down on Moutai's long-term demand thesis even as the broader baijiu sector slumps.
How much did he buy, and at what price?
Duan posted on Xueqiu (雪球) that he bought 30,000 shares at roughly RMB 1,230 each, totaling over RMB 36.9 million.
After the post, Moutai rallied in the afternoon session, closing up 0.56% at RMB 1,243 with a market cap of RMB 1.55 trillion.
This means → his entry price sat just below the closing price; the disclosure itself acted as a short-term catalyst.
Why does he keep buying Moutai?
Duan's thesis has stayed consistent: he values Moutai's business model and believes the "drink less, drink better" consumer trend still supports demand.
He has said Moutai will likely beat inflation over a ten-year horizon — but stressed this is personal judgment, not a guarantee.
In plain terms = he is not betting on near-term price action but on Moutai's moat holding up over a decade.
What is the "RMB 100 million wager" about?
In August, Duan posted that he would bet RMB 100 million against any Chinese fund, over ten years, that Moutai stock outperforms.
The backstory: over the past ten years, Moutai rose 412%, far ahead of the equity-biased mixed fund index at 134%. But over the past five years, Moutai fell 33%, underperforming the same index's 8.6% gain.
This reflects a selective framing — the five-year data actually works against him, yet he anchors the bet to the longer window where his record is strongest.
Private-fund manager Dan Bin publicly replied that a public wager was unnecessary, arguing investors should "move with the times and look globally." Duan's original post is no longer searchable on Xueqiu.
How is the baijiu industry doing right now?
Ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, multiple industry sources told Pengpai News that sales were "lukewarm despite peak season." Sub-premium baijiu brands cooled sharply; one distributor said "apart from Moutai, many brands are already at rock-bottom prices."
In plain terms = the entire baijiu sector is shrinking in volume — only Moutai still holds its pricing. Moutai's own retail stores sell at RMB 1,766/bottle; most third-party outlets price above RMB 1,800.
Industry commentator Xiao Zhuqing put it bluntly: baijiu has entered a new cycle of "shrinking volume, winner-take-all at the top."
What do institutional analysts think of Moutai's outlook?
Guojin Securities noted the sector's volume, pricing, and profit metrics are "gradually bottoming," expecting holiday sales declines to narrow to flat or a slight dip.
Jefferies published an August report arguing Moutai is accelerating its shift toward a luxury-goods operating model — "increasingly resembling Hermès" — with a target price of RMB 2,100 and a buy rating.
This means → the real debate among institutions is not whether Moutai survives, but whether it is a "consumer staple leader" or a "Chinese luxury brand" — two pricing frameworks with very different valuation ceilings.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。