Fed Survey: Corporate CFOs Raise Inflation Expectations, Monetary Policy Becomes Top Concern
nashnova research
CFOs at roughly 500 U.S. firms now expect to raise prices 5.3% this year, and monetary policy has overtaken inflation itself as their top worry — the rate-hike cycle is reaching deep into corporate operations.
How much do firms plan to raise prices?
Surveyed companies expect average price increases of 5.3% this year, up from 4.6% in Q2 and 3.6% at the start of the year — nearly half again higher in six months.
Next-year expectations also climbed to 4.5%, up from 4.1% in Q2.
This means → firms are not betting that inflation is peaking; they are pricing in sustained increases.
Why has the top worry shifted?
"Inflation" itself actually slipped in the corporate-concern rankings. "Monetary policy" took the top spot — about 20% of firms named it their primary worry, up from under 15% last survey.
In plain terms = companies have already accepted that prices will rise; what keeps them up at night is whether the Fed will keep hiking and how high rates will go.
This reflects a shift: the rate-hike cycle has moved from the "market expectation" phase into the "felt on the ground" phase.
How hard is it hitting small businesses?
Richmond Fed Vice President Sonya Waddell noted: "The challenges are most acute for smaller, more financially constrained firms."
Roughly one in five small businesses said financing constraints are blocking expansion or affecting daily operations.
Among firms with no investment plans, 42% cited "unfavorable financing conditions or the need to preserve cash" — up from 32% six months ago.
This means → the cost of rate hikes is not shared evenly — small firms absorb the pressure first, and they are often the backbone of employment.
What does this survey tell us?
The survey ran from August 17 to September 4, before the Fed announced its 25-basis-point hike last week — though markets had already priced in the move.
Firms' overall expectations for capital spending over the next six months have softened compared with half a year ago — optimism lingers, but wallets are tightening.
In plain terms = if companies are raising prices while cutting investment, one leg of the inflation-cool-down story is missing: without supply-side expansion, demand cooling alone may not be enough to bring prices back down.
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