Forecast: Samsung's HBM Market Share to Surpass SK Hynix by 2027
nashnova research
A Korean brokerage forecasts Samsung's HBM shipment share will reach 40% in 2027, edging past SK hynix by roughly one percentage point — driven by HBM4 pricing negotiations that are coming in above earlier estimates.
What is the forecast, and how close is it?
Eugene Investment analyst Son In-joon, citing Counterpoint Research data at Korea Premium Week, projects Samsung's HBM share rising from 32% in 2026 to 40% in 2027. SK hynix drops from 47% to 39%. Micron edges up from 20% to 21%.
The gap between Samsung and SK hynix is roughly one percentage point — near parity, not a decisive lead.
This means → Samsung is closing a double-digit deficit, not blowing past the leader. The real contest starts at the finish line.
Why is HBM4 pricing the key variable?
Samsung is negotiating 2027 HBM4 prices at roughly $4 per gigabit or above, higher than the prior Street estimate of about $3.50. SK hynix has reportedly reopened some contracts at just above $3.
KB Securities reiterates that Samsung's HBM ASP could more than double in 2027, because HBM4 is expected to account for 80% of Samsung's HBM revenue that year.
In plain terms = HBM4 carries a much higher unit price, and Samsung's product mix is the most tilted toward HBM4 — price × mix share pushes revenue up fast.
What does Micron's stance tell us?
On its September 30 earnings call, Micron confirmed it has contracted the vast majority of its 2027 HBM bit supply at prices significantly above 2026 levels.
Micron said the deals will narrow the gross-margin gap between HBM and conventional DRAM but did not disclose specific increases.
This reflects an industry-wide price push — Samsung is not alone in repricing HBM4; it simply has the steepest increase.
How does conventional DRAM pricing help HBM?
Conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise another 10%–15% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2026. HBM and conventional DRAM share advanced manufacturing capacity.
This means → the opportunity cost of allocating wafer capacity to HBM keeps climbing, giving HBM sellers a harder pricing floor.
HBM prices are typically locked via annual agreements and have not yet reflected recent DRAM increases. In plain terms = DRAM has moved up, but HBM contracts lag — the catch-up room in the next negotiation cycle is substantial.
How does Samsung's manufacturing setup differ?
Samsung began HBM4 mass production in February 2026, using its sixth-generation 1c-class 10 nm DRAM process paired with a 4 nm logic base die — the controller chip at the bottom of the HBM stack — produced at its own foundry.
SK hynix partners with TSMC to develop its base die, splitting DRAM and logic fabrication across two companies.
In plain terms = Samsung makes both the memory and the logic chip in-house — a vertically integrated line. SK hynix outsources the logic piece to TSMC. Samsung's setup is theoretically more flexible, but whether it actually saves cost hinges on yield.
What is the biggest uncertainty in this forecast?
Whether Samsung delivers on the share reversal depends on two things: HBM4 mass-production yield and the pace of customer qualification.
Neither company has publicly confirmed final contract prices. Current figures come from brokerage forecasts and media reports, leaving room for revision.
This reflects a shift in how the market evaluates Samsung's memory business — from "can it catch up?" to "can it hold the position once it does?" Yield is the entry ticket.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。