Freeport Q3 Copper Output Meets Target; Copper Futures Drop ~2% on the Week
nashnova research
Freeport-McMoRan's Q3 copper output hit 830 million pounds as guided, with Grasberg ramping back to roughly two-thirds of pre-incident capacity — yet copper futures fell ~2% this week as U.S.–China stockpiling reshapes global supply geography.
Output hit the target — so why hasn't the money followed?
Q3 copper production reached 830 million pounds and gold hit 230,000 ounces, both in line with guidance. Strong international operations offset a modest dip in U.S. output.
Copper sales, however, are expected at only 750 million pounds; gold sales at 100,000 ounces, with 60,000 ounces of gold deferred from Q3 into Q4.
This means → hitting production targets did not translate directly into revenue. The gold deferral pushed consolidated net cash costs roughly 5% above the prior guidance of $2 per pound.
How far has Grasberg recovered?
The Grasberg Block Cave — Freeport's flagship underground copper-gold mine in Indonesia — is ramping up in stages.
Q3 mill throughput averaged 140,000 metric tonnes per day, about two-thirds of the normal rate before the September 2025 incident; ore from the underground mine itself averaged 70,000 tonnes per day.
In plain terms = the mine is not fully back, but it has covered two-thirds of the recovery path. The pace from here sets the production ceiling for Q4 and beyond.
Why did copper fall this week?
LME copper futures recovered above $14,300 per tonne on Friday, but still posted a weekly decline of roughly 2% — the steepest weekly drop since May.
Two headwinds dominated: elevated energy costs and soft Chinese industrial demand. A weaker dollar offered only limited support.
This means → demand-side weakness is, for now, outweighing supply-side tightness. Copper is consolidating at high levels rather than trending lower.
Where could U.S.–China stockpiling push copper prices?
Expectations of U.S. tariffs on refined metals have prompted traders to redirect hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper into the U.S., fuelling supply-tightness fears elsewhere.
Deutsche Bank metals research head Daniel Ghali argues that historic hoarding by both the U.S. and China will drive copper prices higher. By his estimate, the two countries could hold 71% of global copper supply by year-end.
The more extreme scenario: if the trend continues, available copper outside the U.S. and China could be effectively exhausted by end-2028. Even if tariffs never materialise, U.S. copper futures trading persistently above LME prices may keep metal locked inside the American market.
This reflects a structural risk — copper's geographic allocation is shifting from market-driven pricing to policy-driven hoarding, raising both the difficulty and the cost of sourcing copper for manufacturers outside the U.S. and China.
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