Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Global LNG Supply Flows as Buyers Accelerate Efforts to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
nashnova research
Roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade once passed through the Strait of Hormuz; since the conflict, buyers have pivoted to multi-region sourcing, narrowing the net shortfall to just 1%–1.5% of world supply as the market enters a structural reset.
Why are buyers suddenly racing to lock in non-Gulf gas?
The Strait of Hormuz is the Persian Gulf's only exit to open water. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade used to pass through it — making the strait the single biggest chokepoint in the market.
This means → the question buyers face is not just "which supplier is cheaper" but "can the cargo physically leave port."
Sue-Ern Tan, head of the IEA's Singapore regional hub, told the Gastech conference: "Many governments are thinking about diversifying not just suppliers, but supply routes."
Which countries have already switched suppliers?
Bangladesh, previously heavily reliant on Qatari LNG, is now actively pursuing alternatives from Indonesia, Australia, and China.
CNPC's trading arm and India's GAIL have both completed non-Gulf procurement. In plain terms = Asia's two large-volume buyers have already voted with their contracts.
Thailand's PTT is turning to Oman, North America, and West Africa, recently signing a long-term deal with Norway's Equinor — a route that bypasses Hormuz entirely.
How big is the supply gap — and can it be filled?
Shell executive Tom Summers gave the key figure at Gastech: the Gulf supply shortfall is about 36 million tonnes, but new capacity has largely covered it, leaving a net global gap of roughly 5 million tonnes this year.
This means → the net gap is just 1%–1.5% of global supply. The market has not collapsed, but the cushion is razor-thin — any fresh disruption could tighten balances immediately.
U.S. EIA data show first-half 2026 U.S. LNG exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day, up 23% year-on-year, effectively filling in as the swing supplier.
Who stands to gain most from the reshuffle?
The diversification push is opening investment opportunities for emerging producers such as Argentina, Timor-Leste, and Tanzania, potentially breaking the U.S.–Qatar duopoly on global LNG exports.
Bechtel president Paul Marsden expects new East African projects to attract majors like ExxonMobil. This reflects a broader capital shift: international oil majors are placing bets outside the Gulf.
Put simply = the global LNG export game used to be a two-player table — the U.S. and Qatar. Now several new players are pulling up chairs.
Can this reshuffle settle into a stable new order?
Inpex CEO Takayuki Ueda summed up the industry's new priorities in three phrases: portfolio resilience, supply-source diversification, and security across the entire supply chain.
This means → the consensus has shifted from "chase the lowest price" to "guarantee uninterrupted flow." Whether a new order actually takes hold depends on two things: how fast emerging-producer projects advance, and whether geopolitics delivers another shock.
The market sits in a transition zone — the old concentrated supply model is broken, but the new multi-source system is not yet fully built.
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