Global EV Sales Expected to Rise 6.5% in 2026; China's Exports Projected at 5.1 Million Units
nashnova research
DIGITIMES Intelligence forecasts 2026 global EV sales at roughly 22.34 million units, up just 6.5% year-on-year — growth more than halved from 2025's 21.8% pace, as China and the U.S. contract in tandem while Europe and emerging markets take over as the new engines.
Why is global growth slowing so sharply?
Global EV sales are projected at about 22.34 million units in 2026, up 6.5% — down from 21.8% growth in 2025. This means → the market is shifting from an expansion phase into a digestion phase.
China's domestic EV sales are expected to fall 7.1% year-on-year, dragged by the phase-out of purchase-tax incentives and weakening overall car demand.
The U.S. drop is steeper — over 20% — as buyer subsidies expire and automakers pull back EV rollout plans. In plain terms = the two largest markets are braking at the same time, and global growth follows.
Which markets are picking up the baton?
Europe's EV sales are forecast to rise nearly 30% year-on-year; Southeast Asia and Latin America may each grow over 60%.
Three forces are converging: government subsidies and tax breaks lower the purchase barrier, rising fuel prices tilt lifecycle costs in EVs' favor, and Chinese automakers expanding abroad flood these regions with affordable models.
This reflects a geographic shift in growth momentum — away from China and the U.S., toward Europe and emerging markets.
How fast is China's export machine running?
DIGITIMES Intelligence projects China's EV exports at roughly 5.1 million units in 2026, up 49% from 3.43 million in 2025.
EVs' share of China's total vehicle exports will rise from 41% in 2025 to about 48%. This means → nearly half of all cars China ships abroad will be electric; overseas markets are no longer a side business.
Three regions dominate: Europe at roughly 1.6 million, Southeast Asia at 950,000, and Latin America at 900,000 — together about 3.45 million units, or nearly 70% of total EV exports.
Which automakers are leading the charge overseas?
BYD (比亚迪), Geely (吉利汽车), and Chery (奇瑞汽车) are projected to export a combined 3.1 million units, accounting for over 60% of China's EV export total.
All three share the same playbook: price competitiveness as the spearhead, a steadily expanding product lineup covering more price tiers, and local assembly in target markets to cut tariffs and logistics costs.
In plain terms = they are using a "value-for-money plus local factories" combination to turn Chinese-made EVs into a major source of incremental supply for Europe and emerging markets.
Can the forecast actually deliver — what is the key test?
The global EV landscape is already restructuring: China and the U.S. are shifting from volume growth to share competition, while Europe and emerging markets become the growth arena.
This means → the forecast hinges not on China or the U.S., but on whether Europe and emerging markets can keep absorbing China's export capacity.
If subsidy policies, trade barriers, or consumer appetite in those markets shift, the 5.1-million-unit export target comes under pressure.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。