Goldman Sachs: China AI Stocks Near $5 Trillion Market Cap, Two Investment Themes Identified — Exports vs. Domestic Demand
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs reports that since DeepSeek's launch, China's AI stocks have generated nearly $5 trillion in market cap, now accounting for 42% of all A-share and Hong Kong-listed equities; two diverging tracks — export proxies and domestic champions — will shape the next phase of capital flows.
Where did the $5 trillion come from?
Since DeepSeek's early-2025 release, Chinese AI-related listed companies have added nearly $5 trillion in market cap through share-price gains and IPOs.
AI stocks now represent 42% of total A-share and Hong Kong market cap, up from ~20% in 2024, and account for 57% of trading volume. This means → more than half of every dollar traded in Chinese equities is an AI bet.
On earnings, Chinese AI companies carry a 2023–2028 expected EPS CAGR of 16%, versus just 4% for non-AI peers. In plain terms = a 4× growth gap is pulling capital decisively toward one side.
Track one: export-oriented AI companies — whose money are they making?
Goldman identifies roughly 360 export-oriented AI companies with a combined market cap of ~$1.7 trillion and overseas revenue exceeding 40%, concentrated in AI infrastructure and power equipment.
This means → these firms are essentially China-based proxies for Western AI capex — as global hyperscalers build out data centers, orders flow into the Chinese supply chain.
Cumulative returns from early 2025 to June 2026 reached 126%, but the group has fallen 23% from its peak since the late-June global AI selloff. It now trades at 21× 2027E P/E, near the bottom of its recent range, with consensus two-year EPS CAGR of 38%.
Track two: domestic AI champions — what supports the valuation?
Roughly 880 companies primarily serving the Chinese market (overseas revenue below 10%) carry a combined market cap of ~$3.2 trillion.
Three drivers underpin them: rising AI capex from China's hyperscale cloud providers, surging AI application demand, and direct policy support. During the recent global selloff, domestics outperformed exporters by ~10 percentage points.
The group trades at 23× forward P/E against 33% EPS CAGR, yielding a PEG of ~0.7×. Goldman flags a risk → some semiconductor-localization names carry heavy policy premiums, pushing valuations well above global peers. Overpaying for policy certainty is the key risk on this track.
How much is Beijing actually spending?
Ultra-long special treasury bonds: ~RMB 800 billion in 2026, earmarked for "dual priorities" — major strategic and major security initiatives, with the second tranche explicitly including AI.
National IC Fund Phase III: RMB 344 billion, targeting advanced packaging, equipment, and AI chips. National AI Industry Investment Fund: RMB 60 billion.
The 15th Five-Year Plan mandates R&D spending growth above 7% per year, reaching ~3% of GDP by 2030. This reflects a policy framework that treats AI as a national strategic priority on par with semiconductors — the funding scale implies a long-cycle commitment, not a short-term stimulus.
How far ahead is the "curated AI portfolio"?
Goldman's updated "China Curated AI Portfolio" holds 50 names (38 A-shares, 27 HK-listed, 3 ADRs), spanning 23 AI sub-industries. By sector: semiconductors 35.9%, AI applications 33.6%, infrastructure 21.2%, power 8.2%, large language models 1.2%.
The equal-weighted portfolio trades at 31× 12-month forward P/E, with consensus two-year earnings growth of 46% and 58% of revenue directly tied to AI operations.
Since its February 2025 inception it has returned 33%, versus 6% for the MSCI China Index, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.23 against 0.74 for the benchmark. In plain terms = for the same level of volatility, this portfolio delivered roughly 3× the benchmark return.
Why haven't foreign investors caught up?
Chinese AI companies account for ~10% of global AI market cap, yet mutual-fund allocation to Chinese tech stocks sits at only ~5.8% — a notable underweight.
This means → there is a clear gap between international capital's awareness of China AI and its actual positioning.
Whether this gap narrows as the export-versus-domestic divergence sharpens is, in Goldman's view, the key variable for future capital flows.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。