Goldman Sachs: Divergence Intensifies in China's Battery Sector, Energy Storage Order Visibility Extends to 2027
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs sees China's battery industry entering a phase of high growth but sharp divergence, with overseas energy-storage exposure as the clearest driver of outperformance — while margin recovery remains hostage to how fully a new consumption tax can be passed through.
Who is winning and who is falling behind?
Goldman keeps CATL as its conviction buy and Zenergy at buy; Gotion and Farasis stay at sell; EVE Energy, CALB, and Rept Battero are neutral.
Target prices for tier-2 and tier-3 makers were cut 8%–31%, driven by lower earnings forecasts and reduced valuation multiples. This means → Goldman believes profits are concentrating at the top faster, squeezing the valuation premium out of smaller players.
In plain terms = the track is still growing fast, but only the front-runners are converting growth into profit — the rest are running harder for less.
Where is the growth actually coming from?
Overseas energy storage is the strongest engine. SNE Research data: the offshore storage-battery market grew 93% YoY; China's domestic market grew 49%. Shipments to Europe and the US rose 70%–80% YoY; Middle East, Oceania, and Southeast Asia more than doubled.
CATL's storage-battery sales nearly doubled YoY; its EV-battery sales grew 50%, adding 109 GWh — roughly equal to the combined H1 volume of every tier-2 and tier-3 maker Goldman covers. This means → one company's incremental volume matched all its smaller rivals combined — the scale gap is still widening.
On the EV-battery side, exports drove H1 growth. China's NEV exports rose 138% YoY; electric heavy-truck penetration climbed from 28% to 35%, with battery installations up 91%.
Why haven't margins kept pace with revenue?
Most makers saw gross margins improve quarter-on-quarter, but margins remain under pressure YoY — mainly from lagging raw-material cost pass-through and reduced export-tax rebates.
From September, most companies raised prices to pass through a new battery consumption tax, but full pass-through takes time. Some firms say the worst case is passing through only about half the tax burden. This means → Q3 margins face a timing mismatch — prices are up, but the pass-through is not yet complete.
Gotion gave a specific split: customers absorb over 70%–80%, the company absorbs under 30%. CATL said the phase-out of export VAT rebates is being staged, and it is negotiating cost-sharing with major customers step by step.
How far out do energy-storage orders stretch?
Multiple makers have secured storage orders covering through Q1 2027. Management guidance points to 40%–50% storage-demand growth next year. Leading integrator clients are even requesting dedicated production lines.
Companies are raising their systems-business share — selling complete storage systems rather than cells alone. EVE Energy plans to lift systems from ~10% to 20%–30%; Rept Battero expects ~15% this year, rising further next year. In plain terms = shifting from selling "parts" to selling "the whole machine" — systems carry 20%–30% higher value than cells and roughly 5–10 percentage points more gross margin.
On the EV side, 2027 is expected to be the first year of meaningful volume for many overseas automakers' EV models — benefiting EVE Energy (BMW's key supplier) and Gotion (VW's key supplier).
How will capacity controls reshape competition?
Since June, new capacity approvals have effectively been frozen. Regulators are using a "whitelist" approach — only approved makers can expand — aiming to curb irrational price wars. This means → policy is artificially tightening supply, handing approved players a structural moat.
Tier-2 makers are fast-tracking already-approved expansion, with most projects due for completion by end-2027. Large-format storage cells (588 Ah, 648 Ah, 684 Ah and above) are the 2027–2028 capacity focus; most makers have stopped adding 314 Ah lines.
Early ramp-ups may pressure margins due to yield-rate challenges — the share of cells meeting quality standards during initial production. But companies expect large-format cells to deliver better profitability long-term. This reflects an industry trading short-term cost for long-term competitiveness — and consumption-tax pass-through completion plus large-format cell yield ramp will be the two key checkpoints for whether 2027 margin forecasts are met.
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