Goldman Sachs Forecasts U.S. Equity Issuance to Reach $600 Billion by 2027
nashnova research
Goldman strategist Ben Snider projects US equity issuance will hit $600 billion in 2027, with IPOs contributing $175 billion; AI capex is fueling the boom, but whether Treasury yields fall will determine if the blueprint holds.
Where does the $600 billion come from?
Goldman strategist Ben Snider forecasts $600 billion in total US equity issuance for 2027: $175 billion from IPOs, $425 billion from follow-on offerings, convertibles, and SPACs — blank-check companies set up solely to acquire a target.
This means → IPOs account for less than 30%. The bulk is existing public companies raising fresh capital — new supply comes mainly from old names, not new listings.
For context, 2026 is already a record year: US firms had raised roughly $431 billion by the report date, up 98% year-on-year. Goldman expects the full-year total to reach $675 billion, surpassing the 2021 peak of $540 billion.
Why is AI investment moving the entire equity market?
AI-related follow-on offerings raised about $65 billion in 2026 — 45% of all US follow-on volume. In plain terms = nearly half of all secondary offerings exist to fund AI infrastructure.
Goldman estimates combined 2027 capex at Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle at roughly $1.2 trillion, against operating cash flow of about $1.1 trillion.
This means → big tech will plug most of the gap with debt — Goldman's credit team estimates debt covers about 35% of the shortfall, or over $400 billion. Their own equity-funding needs are limited. The companies that will keep tapping the equity market are the smaller firms building out AI infrastructure.
Can the market absorb all this new stock?
Goldman estimates roughly $1.7 trillion in shares will be unlocked in 2027 as post-IPO lock-up periods expire. Combined with new issuance, net equity supply could hit the highest level since 2000.
Goldman notes, however, that unlocked shareholders won't necessarily sell immediately, and proceeds from any sales may flow back into equities — on-paper supply shock does not equal real selling pressure one-for-one.
On the buy side, Goldman forecasts $1.7 trillion in corporate buybacks for 2027. Add cash acquisitions, and total corporate demand for equities is projected to exceed $2 trillion. This reflects a market where corporate "buying back" still outweighs "selling out."
What is the biggest wild card?
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen roughly 125 basis points over the past year, including over 50 bps since late August, visibly suppressing equity issuance.
The direct fallout: Q3 2026 equity financing totaled just $93 billion, down sharply from a record $252 billion in Q2. September alone saw only 19 follow-ons and 5 IPOs — the weakest month since the April 2025 tariff shock.
Goldman forecasts the 10-year yield will fall from the current ~5.2% to 4.4% by end-2027, which would ease financing conditions. Put simply = Goldman's $600 billion blueprint assumes rates come down. If yields stay elevated, both IPOs and follow-ons will remain under pressure.
What is Goldman's view on the broader market?
Goldman maintains a bullish call on the S&P 500: 2027 EPS growth of 11% to $415, with a 12-month price target of 8,700.
S&P 500 companies bought back 15% more stock in H1 2026 year-on-year; as of October 5, announced buyback authorizations totaled roughly $1.14 trillion, up 23%.
This means → Goldman's thesis is that buybacks plus earnings growth can absorb the new supply — but the prerequisite, again, is that yields decline as forecast.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。