Goldman Sachs Leads Wall Street Q3 Equities Trading as Big Five Banks Post Nearly $19 Billion Combined
nashnova research
Wall Street's five biggest banks are set to report combined Q3 equities-trading revenue of nearly $19 billion, with Goldman Sachs leading at $5.1 billion — but fixed-income is sliding to a 2026 low, and the first-half tide that lifted all boats is receding.
Who is winning the equities-trading race?
Goldman Sachs leads at an estimated $5.1 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley at $4.9 billion, JPMorgan at $4.5 billion, and Bank of America at roughly $2.6 billion.
This means → the top two alone account for more than half of the Big Five's total. Concentration is rising.
Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo put it bluntly: the first half was a rising tide, but Q3 "may widen the gap between winners and losers considerably."
Why is fixed income suddenly the weak link?
Big Five fixed-income trading revenue is projected above $19 billion for Q3 — down from over $21 billion in Q2 and the lowest quarter of 2026 so far.
BofA CEO Brian Moynihan warned in mid-September that fixed-income trading would decline quarter-on-quarter; the stock sold off sharply on the news.
Goldman CEO David Solomon was equally direct: fixed income is "soft," equities remain "very strong." In plain terms = inside the same bank, two businesses are moving in opposite directions — equities carrying the numbers, fixed income dragging them down.
Can capital-markets momentum hold in the second half?
BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala forecasts that H2 2026 capital-markets activity will be "notably weaker" than H1 and questions the sustainability of the current cycle.
Global announced M&A volume fell roughly 10% year-on-year in Q3. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV that the U.S. saw "some degree of slowdown" in September, though European IPO and M&A pipelines look "quite good."
This means → the growth engine is shifting from "broad-based U.S. drive" to "partial European offset." Overall momentum is fading.
Is investment-banking fee growth still holding up?
Analysts project JPMorgan's investment-banking fees up 15% year-on-year, Goldman up 8.1%, and Morgan Stanley up just 1.9%.
This reflects a widening split even in the "good news" segment — JPMorgan is pulling away while Morgan Stanley is nearly flat.
What other pressures are banks facing from rates and AI?
Rising rates are hitting balance sheets: fair-value swings on held assets flow through AOCI — accumulated other comprehensive income, essentially unrealized gains and losses sitting on the books — and could cause significant earnings volatility.
Debt underwriting has support from a wall of maturities over the next three years, but Mayo warns that sustained rate increases would suppress bond demand.
AI-driven deposit-optimization tools — technology that automatically moves client cash to higher-yielding options — threaten to siphon bank deposits. That concern weighed on bank stocks: the Q3 KBW Bank Index posted its worst quarterly performance since the Q1 2023 regional-banking crisis.
In plain terms = rates, AI disruption, and sentiment are stacking up as a triple headwind. Whether this earnings season can ease those fears is the quarter's central test.
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