Hong Kong Stocks Fell 1.43% on Oct 8: Semiconductors Plunged While Oil and Coal Bucked the Trend
nashnova research
The Hang Seng Index fell 1.43% to 23,785 on October 8, with semiconductors and optical-communications stocks hit hardest while oil and coal names rallied. This means → rising long-end U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical supply risks are reshaping Hong Kong's sector rotation at the same time.
Why did all three benchmarks fall?
The HSI dropped 1.43% to 23,785.79; turnover hit HK$207.3 billion. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.89%, touching an intraday low not seen since September 2024.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5.7%. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting struck a hawkish tone — most officials still expected further rate hikes before year-end.
This means → persistent long-end rate increases are compressing Hong Kong equity valuations across the board, with growth-oriented tech stocks bearing the brunt.
Why were semiconductors and optical communications the worst hit?
Hua Hong Semi fell 9.21%, SMIC 6.73%, GigaDevice 7.47%. In optical communications, YOFC dropped 6.73% and Zhongji Innolight 6.68%.
The key catalyst was a Morgan Stanley report published October 1. It concluded that FCC restrictions on Chinese-made optical modules would most likely be phased in starting at the 3.2T generation, with a possible "U.S.-content exemption" pathway. In plain terms = this is not a blanket ban but a generation-by-generation tightening — the real financial hit may not land until after 2027.
Separately, rumors of 1.6T optical-chip price cuts circulated. Three listed suppliers — Everbright Photonics, Sanan Optoelectronics subsidiary Shijia Photons, and Yongding — all said they had received no such notice. Shijia attributed the sell-off mainly to the FCC policy report.
Samsung Electronics reported Q3 revenue of KRW 195 trillion, below the KRW 201.9 trillion consensus, adding further drag to semiconductor sentiment.
Why did oil and coal stocks rally?
Shandong Molong surged 16.1%; COSL rose 5.59%. China Shenhua gained 3.13%; Yanzhou Energy added 2.37%.
The EIA sharply raised its oil-price forecasts: Brent crude's 2026 average was lifted to roughly $98 per barrel (up 8%), with Q4 average expectations at about $105 (up 15%). On October 8 Brent futures cleared the $104 mark.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. defense officials reportedly instructed Central Command to complete preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale military operations against Iran. This reflects the market repricing the risk of a Middle East supply disruption.
On coal: Indian power-plant coal inventories are near a five-year low, while Indonesia — the world's largest coal exporter — posted a five-year low in monthly export volumes. Guotai Junan noted that winter-restocking demand and tightening overseas supply leave room for further coal-price gains.
Why are innovative-pharma stocks also falling?
Grand Pharma dropped 10.71%, CSPC Pharma 5.40%, Innovent Bio 5.03%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.30%. In plain terms = innovative-pharma companies are classic "long-duration assets" — most of their cash flows lie years in the future. The higher the discount rate (the interest rate used to convert future income into present value), the harder their valuations get squeezed. When rates rise, these stocks are among the first to sell off.
What were the notable blue-chip and single-stock moves?
HSBC fell 4.87% to HK$142.6, with HK$4.65 billion in turnover. Two pressures converged: speculation that the UK government may impose a "windfall tax" on banks, and reports that HSBC plans significant cuts to its UK wealth-management headcount in favor of AI-assisted client services.
China Overseas Land led blue-chip gainers, up 3.75%. Desi-B surged 21.75% as the market positioned it as a rare Hong Kong-listed pure-play on AI for Science.
Shein-W rose 8.93% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and a HK$62 target. Sa Sa International gained 8.33%, reporting fiscal Q2 revenue of HK$1.41 billion — up 37.2% year-on-year — with Golden Week offline sales in Hong Kong and Macau jumping over 60%.
What should investors watch next?
Galaxy Securities argued that a medium-term reversal has not been confirmed — the market still lacks a sustained upward catalyst.
CITIC Securities countered that after two consecutive months of pullback, Hong Kong stocks are starting to show value. If new property policies spark a positive wealth effect and domestic demand recovers, the firm sees a Q4 "earnings + valuation" double-beat scenario.
This means → two near-term signposts matter most: when the FCC's policy text lands will determine whether tech can stabilize, and the effectiveness of mainland property measures will determine whether overall valuations can rebound.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。