iPhone 18 Pro First-Week Sales Up 12% YoY, Apple's China Market Share Rises to 33%
nashnova research
iPhone 18 Pro first-week sales in China rose 12% year-on-year, lifting Apple to a 33% weekly share at the top of the market — but chip shortages and rising flagship prices may weigh on Q4 upgrade demand.
Why did the first week beat the prior generation so decisively?
The Pro series sold more in its first three days than last year's model did in its entire launch week, pushing Apple to a 33% weekly share — top in China.
The base iPhone 18 launched later, funneling buyers toward the pricier Pro models. This means → Apple's product cadence concentrated demand on its highest-margin SKUs.
Channel support also mattered: Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam flagged aggressive retail preparation as a key driver of the strong open.
Chinese brands all raised prices — and that helped Apple?
Huawei, Xiaomi, and other Chinese flagship brands raised prices across the board as memory and 2 nm chip costs climbed, lifting the market's pricing baseline.
In plain terms = when every flagship gets more expensive, the iPhone's price tag stands out less — its relative value actually improves.
This reflects a deeper shift: rising chip costs are not just a supply-chain issue — they are reshaping the competitive pricing landscape between brands.
Wide-screen and foldables launched together — who is stealing whose customers?
Huawei unveiled the Pura X View, a slab phone with a 16:9.5 wide-screen ratio — delivering a foldable-like viewing experience without the hinge.
Counterpoint analyst Shiwen Ma said the device targets consumers "who want a big screen but won't pay the foldable premium or accept its bulk."
Apple's first foldable, iPhone Duo, and Xiaomi's 18 Fold also lifted sales of Huawei's wide-screen foldable flagship Pura X Max. This means → the foldable category is expanding the pie, not just splitting it.
iPhone Duo hasn't shipped yet — why is UBS already bullish?
iPhone Duo is set for an October 23 launch. UBS holds its forecast of 261 million global iPhone shipments for the fiscal year, implying 15.4% year-on-year growth.
UBS specifically noted that Chinese consumer interest in foldables remains stronger than in other international markets.
In plain terms = UBS's thesis is straightforward — China is the world's most foldable-ready market, so Apple's first foldable has the most explosive upside here.
Chip shortages and soft demand — can the momentum last into Q4?
AI infrastructure buildout is squeezing memory chip supply. IDC projects global smartphone shipments will contract 16.7% in 2026; Counterpoint's forecast puts the decline at 14%.
Continued spec upgrades are fueling expectations of further price hikes. This means → consumers may delay upgrades, putting Q4 demand under pressure.
Both forecasters point to the same bind: the balancing act between supply-chain costs and pricing is getting harder, and whether the strong launch week carries into the holiday quarter remains an open question.
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