Iron Ore Falls for Three Consecutive Weeks to Lowest Since September 2024
nashnova research
Singapore iron ore futures slid to $90.90 per tonne, the lowest since September 2024; Chinese port stockpiles climbed to 152.7 million tonnes, and the pricing logic is shifting from production-driven support to a supply-glut, demand-weakening narrative.
Why does iron ore keep falling?
Singapore futures dropped as much as 0.9% intraday, extending losses to a third consecutive week. Dalian futures hovered near a two-year low.
China's market reopened after the National Day holiday, but demand showed no meaningful pickup.
This means → the post-holiday restocking rally the market had hoped for never materialized; bearish sentiment stays in control.
How bad is the stockpile build-up?
Chinese port inventories have risen to 152.7 million tonnes, with arrivals consistently outpacing actual consumption.
Yongan Futures analysts noted that the pricing driver is shifting from "high hot-metal output plus freight support" to "rising supply, weakening demand, and inventory accumulation."
In plain terms = prices used to be propped up by mills running flat-out and costly shipping. Now ore keeps arriving faster than it is used, so prices naturally drift lower.
Can demand hold up?
According to Mysteel, daily pig-iron output has held roughly steady at 2.34 million tonnes — demand is stable for now.
But steel-mill profitability has fallen below 7%. Persistently thin margins could force deeper production cuts at any time.
This means → demand is "barely holding," not "recovering." If margins deteriorate further, iron ore consumption will shrink with them.
Where is the supply pressure coming from?
Negotiations between BHP and Port Hedland unions, and separate talks between China Mineral Resources Group and FuBao Resources, could have disrupted shipments — but global supply is so ample that these disruptions were absorbed.
Guinea is ramping up iron ore exports as its trans-shipment capacity expands, adding to the global surplus.
This reflects a broader trend: new supply sources are diluting the pricing power of established miners.
How does the coking-coal spike feed through?
Dalian coking-coal futures surged 4.2% on Friday to 1,538.5 yuan per tonne, squeezing steel-mill margins further.
Morgan Stanley analysts noted that if mills cut output in response, it could lend some short-term support to steel prices — but whether that logic plays out remains to be seen.
In plain terms = raw-material costs rise → mills lose more money → forced to cut output → less steel supply → steel prices may rebound. But the longer the chain, the more likely a link breaks.
What to watch next?
As of 12:25 Beijing time, Singapore iron ore was down 0.4% at $90.90 per tonne; Dalian futures fell in tandem, while Shanghai rebar edged up.
Yongan Futures expects a bearish tilt through the fourth quarter.
This means → the depth of steel-mill production cuts is the key variable from here. Deep enough cuts could stabilize iron ore demand; anything less, and stockpiles will keep building.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。