Japan's MOF Confirms Suspension of Intervention; Yen at 156.93
nashnova research
Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed zero FX intervention from Aug 27 to Sep 28 — the first full-month pause since July's record $98.7 billion joint operation — with the yen now at 156.93 and its rebound hinging on whether the BOJ delivers its next rate hike on schedule.
A full month of no action — what is Tokyo waiting for?
The MOF disclosed Wednesday: zero intervention between August 27 and September 28.
This is the first officially confirmed pause since July's record $98.7 billion coordinated operation.
This means → authorities are relying on verbal deterrence, not fresh capital, saving ammunition for the next sharp yen sell-off.
How rare was the July intervention?
In July the yen slid to a nearly 40-year low, approaching the 164 handle, prompting Japan and the U.S. to jointly buy yen.
That was the first coordinated intervention since 1998 — the last time was during the Asian financial crisis.
The yen subsequently rallied as far as 152.90, aided by rising BOJ rate-hike expectations, and currently trades at 156.93.
Are officials still talking tough?
Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said Tuesday: "We consider yen undervaluation a problem."
She added that Japan is working closely with the U.S. to maintain FX market stability.
In plain terms = hands are off the table, but the message is loud — markets read it as "we can step in at any time."
BOJ rate hikes — the real engine behind the yen rebound?
The BOJ raised rates again this month; most economists expect one more hike before year-end.
The logic: a weak yen amplifies inflation (costlier imports → higher prices), and tightening breaks that loop.
Narrowing rate differentials squeeze the carry trade — borrowing cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets — giving the yen medium-term support.
This means → compared with direct MOF intervention, BOJ hikes are the more durable force behind yen strength.
The Fed side — why is the yen rebound still uncertain?
Sticky U.S. inflation and strong growth support the Fed's tight stance; the U.S.–Japan rate gap remains wide.
NY Fed President John Williams said another hike this year is "probably appropriate," yet signaled "no urgency to act".
In plain terms = the Fed itself hasn't made up its mind, so market pricing keeps swinging — and the yen rebound lacks a firm anchor.
Can the yen keep rallying — what does it come down to?
Maybank analysts note: the BOJ's shift is not enough to support a faster-than-expected tightening pace.
Governor Ueda Kazuo has repeatedly stressed the risks of rapid tightening, favoring gradual adjustment.
This reflects the market's core disagreement: the BOJ has turned, but it may move slower than bulls hope.
Bottom line: whether the yen sustains its gains ultimately depends on the BOJ delivering its next hike on schedule.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。