Jefferies: Weak Hong Kong Secondary Market Prices Signal Softening iPhone 18 Pro Demand
nashnova research
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee flagged that iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max resale prices in Hong Kong have fallen below Apple's official retail price — the clearest demand-softening signal so far, and weaker year-on-year than the iPhone 17 Pro launch window.
Resale prices below retail — what does that actually tell us?
The iPhone 18 Pro's secondhand price has dropped below Apple's official price across nearly every storage tier; the 18 Pro Max premium collapsed on day one and has stayed flat or drifted lower since.
The only variant still trading at a clear premium is the 18 Pro Max 256GB, at roughly 8% above retail.
This means → when even resellers can't turn a profit, real buying enthusiasm is running below expectations. Resale premiums are the market's most honest demand thermometer.
Why are the 1TB and 2TB models struggling most?
The 1TB and 2TB variants are notably weak. Edison Lee points to two reasons.
First, Apple raised prices on these high-capacity models by $400–500, a jump that may exceed what consumers think the extra storage is worth.
Second, Apple switched the 1TB/2TB flash memory from TLC to cheaper QLC NAND — a chip type that packs more data per cell but reads and writes somewhat slower. In plain terms = Apple charged more while downgrading the component — and buyers noticed.
Don't longer lead times mean strong demand?
Lead times for the 18 Pro/Pro Max rose across major markets last weekend — on the surface, a bullish signal.
Edison Lee is skeptical. He argues the lengthening may reflect Apple ramping production for the iPhone 18 DUO — a foldable model expected to ship October 23 — pulling supply away from the Pro line rather than signaling stronger Pro demand.
This means → slower delivery doesn't necessarily mean "too many buyers"; it may mean "the factory is busy with something else." Lee calls it a mixed signal, less reliable than resale-price data.
How do lead times compare across markets?
18 Pro Max: lead times in Hong Kong, China, and the U.S. are longer than last year; in the U.K. and Germany they are shorter; Japan is flat.
18 Pro: Hong Kong and China are longer year-on-year; the U.S. and Germany are shorter; the U.K. and Japan are flat.
This reflects a clear split — China and Hong Kong look tight, while European markets are loosening.
Why might the foldable DUO struggle in China?
The iPhone 18 DUO uses a pure eSIM design — no physical SIM slot, the number is written onto the chip — similar to the poor-selling iPhone 17 Air.
China officially approved eSIM last October, but users must register in person at a carrier store. The Chinese DUO supports only two eSIM numbers; the Hong Kong version supports up to eight.
In plain terms = many Chinese consumers juggle multiple phone numbers — work, personal, roaming abroad. Once both eSIM slots are taken by domestic numbers, adding a foreign roaming eSIM means deactivating one domestic line at a store, then reactivating it at another store visit after returning. This won't stop status-driven early adopters, but it could block broader adoption — especially if consumers expect Apple to launch a second-generation standard-size foldable in 2027.
What is the market watching in the new CEO's first real test?
Bank of America analysts also noted that early iPhone 18 sales data look "mixed", with Pro-series demand roughly in line with the iPhone 17 launch window.
For new Apple CEO John Ternus, this launch is his first real test of whether consumers will pay steep premiums for incremental upgrades.
This means → persistently weak resale prices will be the key metric the market watches to judge whether demand materializes. If premiums fail to recover, Wall Street's confidence in Apple's current product cycle will take a hit.
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