JPMorgan: iPhone 18 Pro Lead Times Narrow Slightly, Demand Remains Healthy
nashnova research
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee says iPhone 18 Pro lead times barely shortened in week three, signaling demand remains healthy — the new cycle is cooling slower than last year's iPhone 17 Pro launch.
What do these lead times actually tell us?
Lead times — the days between placing an order and receiving the phone — are the key real-time gauge of iPhone supply-demand balance. Longer waits mean stronger demand.
iPhone 18 Pro held steady at 23 days in week three; Pro Max dipped just one day to 29 days.
This means → the narrowing is far smaller than at the same stage of last year's iPhone 17 Pro cycle, pointing to sustained buyer interest.
In plain terms = lead times normally shrink each week after launch; the slower they shrink, the more people are still buying.
How do the regions compare?
U.S. (roughly 34% of iPhone shipments): 18 Pro and Pro Max sit at 21 and 28 days, flat week-on-week and in line with year-ago levels.
Europe: broadly tracking iPhone 17 series, with no notable change.
Global aggregate: 18 Pro is "slightly ahead" of last year, while 18 Pro Max is "slightly behind." This means → demand patterns are diverging between the two models.
Why does China deserve a separate look?
18 Pro lead times have overtaken the year-ago mark — 26 days vs. 22 days — showing stronger Pro demand than last cycle.
18 Pro Max still trails last year (32 days vs. 36 days), but the gap is narrowing steadily.
This means → China is the only region where Pro Max still lags year-ago levels; whether it catches up will be a key metric to watch.
China accounts for roughly 19% of iPhone shipments — too large to dismiss.
What about walk-in supply and the rating?
In the U.S., all 18 Pro variants except Burgundy are available for store pickup; no Pro Max variant is available — supply remains tight.
In China, only the black 18 Pro is available in-store; all other Pro and Pro Max versions are sold out.
In plain terms = Pro Max is essentially out of stock in both top markets — that alone signals strong demand.
Chatterjee maintains an Overweight rating on Apple. The key forward indicator: whether Pro Max can close the gap with last year's lead-time curve.
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