MediaTek's Flagship AP Market Share Set to Surpass Samsung; TSMC's 2nm Capacity Is Key
nashnova research
MediaTek's flagship smartphone-chip share is projected to overtake Samsung's in 2026 at 12%, driven by the Dimensity 9600 Pro — its first chip on TSMC's 2nm node — reshuffling the high-end Android AP pecking order around process leadership.
The overall phone-chip market is shrinking — so why is the high end growing?
Counterpoint data shows global smartphone SoC shipments will fall by double digits in 2026 versus 2025.
Yet high-end SoCs' share of the total is projected to rise from 30% in 2024 to 40% in 2026. This means → fewer phones are shipping, but the chip inside each phone is more expensive — volumes shrink while the premium tier expands.
In plain terms = the whole pie is getting smaller, but its most expensive layer is getting thicker — companies making high-end chips benefit most.
Who leads the high-end Android AP race, and how is the order changing?
Qualcomm's share is projected to slip from 55% in 2024 to 50% in 2026 — still the dominant player.
MediaTek rises from 11% to 12%; Samsung holds at 11%. MediaTek overtakes Samsung by one percentage point, its first lead in the flagship segment.
HiSilicon (Huawei) edges up from 17% to 18%, holding second place. This reflects HiSilicon's ability to sustain high-end share under sanctions, albeit with limited growth.
What gives MediaTek the edge to overtake?
The Dimensity 9600 Pro is MediaTek's first smartphone chip on TSMC's 2nm process — a leading node means better performance at the same power, a hard spec advantage.
The second driver is channel: MediaTek has long-standing partnerships with vivo, OPPO, and Xiaomi, securing volume commitments from China's biggest handset makers.
In plain terms = one hand grabs the most advanced production line, the other locks in the largest customer base — both legs pushing at once is what edged Samsung out.
What is Samsung's Exynos counter-strategy?
Samsung's global smartphone-AP share has already recovered from 6% in Q2 2025 to 9% in Q2 2026 — a rebound is underway.
The plan: equip flagships like the Galaxy S27 Ultra with a 2nm Exynos chip and raise the Exynos adoption rate across its lineup.
This means → a higher Exynos adoption rate would lift System LSI revenue while locking in 2nm volume orders for Samsung Foundry — chip design and manufacturing enter a positive feedback loop.
Why is Exynos the single best gauge of Samsung's overall competitiveness?
Analysts conclude that whether Samsung can hold ground in high-end APs will directly determine whether both System LSI and Samsung Foundry can stage a full recovery.
In plain terms = Exynos is not just one chip — it simultaneously drives Samsung's chip-design revenue and its foundry order book, making it the linchpin of two businesses at once.
This reflects Samsung's core tension: chip design and chip manufacturing are bound together — both rise or fall as one.
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