Middle East Export Recovery Pressures Oil Prices as Strait of Hormuz Attacks Continue to Disrupt
nashnova research
Brent crude fell to $99.88 a barrel as Middle East exports partly recovered to pre-war levels, but consecutive tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz keep the market torn between improving supply and persistent shipping risk.
How far did oil prices drop — and why?
Brent December futures fell 0.4% to $99.88/bbl; WTI December futures fell 0.8% to $87.54/bbl.
The core driver: Middle East crude exports are rebounding — on several days in late September, volumes exceeded pre-war levels.
This means → the market's prior fear of a full Middle East supply cut is being revised downward, and prices are easing accordingly.
How much has export flow actually recovered?
Kpler data show the seven-day average of crude through the Strait of Hormuz at 10.3 million barrels per day — roughly 76% of the pre-war baseline.
Refined products — diesel, gasoline and other refinery output — account for just 11% of strait traffic, down from over 20% before the conflict.
In plain terms = crude shipments are most of the way back, but Middle East refineries remain damaged, so finished-fuel supply is still well short.
What exactly happened in the strait?
On Monday a tanker approaching the Strait of Hormuz was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps about 11 nautical miles north of Oman's Hasab and ordered to turn back or face attack — the vessel complied immediately.
Later the same day a second tanker was struck by an unidentified aerial object inside the strait, sparking an engine-room fire; no casualties or pollution have been reported.
This means → the export numbers are improving, but every cargo faces a real physical threat — shipping costs and insurance premiums remain elevated.
How strong is the oversupply signal?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar points to three forces pushing supply higher simultaneously: rising Middle East exports, falling Chinese imports, and increasing output from producers outside OPEC+.
Yet traders are unwilling to fully price in oversupply because the sustainability of the Middle East export rebound remains in doubt.
This reflects an awkward market position: the data point toward surplus, but geopolitical risk could reverse the picture at any moment.
What is happening on the Red Sea front?
Saudi and Yemeni forces are counter-attacking Houthi militants, aiming to retake the strategic port city of Mocha to ease the threat to energy exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea.
The Saudi-led coalition also destroyed weapons depots, explosive-laden speedboat storage facilities, and sea mines in Yemen's Hodeidah province, citing the need to protect navigation through Bab el-Mandeb.
In plain terms = the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are the two lifelines for Middle East oil reaching global markets — both are now under threat, and whether the export recovery holds is the key variable for further oil-price downside.
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