Morgan Stanley Analyst Road-Tests Tesla FSD: Autonomous Driving Challenge Nearing Resolution
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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas backs his bullish FSD call with 2,713 miles of personal driving data — and in his $400 target price, autonomous-driving and robotics businesses account for more than half of Tesla's valuation.
A Wall Street analyst drove 2,713 miles on FSD — what did he find?
Jonas logged 2,713 FSD miles over roughly a year, 33% of his Model Y's total mileage.
He activates FSD on 100% of trips; the system handles an estimated 98–99% of actual driving.
Last week FSD completed a 28-mile round trip from his home to Morgan Stanley's Times Square HQ — zero human intervention.
This means → this is not lab data but a daily commuter's real-world log, closer to actual use than most road-test reports.
From "stay alert" to "zone out" — how did that trust build?
Jonas in his own words: "I used to have to pay attention with FSD. Not anymore."
He now listens to audiobooks, sends emails, and air-drums to Rush until he arrives.
He says his trust in FSD exceeds his trust in ride-hail drivers — he would let it take his children on a long trip alone.
In plain terms = a power user with thousands of miles under his belt now treats FSD as more reliable than a human driver.
What does 15 billion miles of scale look like?
Tesla's cumulative FSD mileage is about to pass 15 billion miles; the fleet drives roughly 24,000 miles per minute in FSD mode.
Morgan Stanley calculates that pace at about 1,800 times the speed of sound.
FSD currently accounts for roughly 0.34% of total US consumer miles driven, projected to reach about 1% within 18–24 months.
This means → the data flywheel — a cycle where more miles make the system smarter, which attracts more users, which generates more miles — is already spinning, and latecomers will find it increasingly hard to catch up.
Inside the $400 target price — what is each piece worth?
Core auto business: $45/share, based on ~8.5 million units sold in 2040 at an 8.4% EBIT margin.
Network services (FSD subscriptions): $144/share, assuming 80% FSD attach rate and $240/month ARPU by 2040.
Mobility (Robotaxi): $120/share, based on ~5 million vehicles at roughly $1.33/mile.
Energy: $35/share; humanoid robot: $56/share after a 50% probability discount.
What is the core bet embedded in this valuation?
Autonomous-driving and robotics businesses together account for more than half the target price — selling cars is only a small slice.
This reflects a pricing framework where Tesla is no longer a "car company" but an autonomous-driving platform + robotics company.
In plain terms = if FSD penetration stalls or unsupervised autonomy fails to launch, more than half of that $400 falls away.
Morgan Stanley flags key risks: competition from legacy automakers, Chinese EV makers, and tech firms; Robotaxi commercialization pace; regulatory policy; and China-market performance.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。