Morgan Stanley Raises Lam Research Target Price to $385, Bullish on Market Share Gains in GAA Era
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Morgan Stanley lifted its Lam Research price target to $385 and reiterated Overweight, arguing TSMC's accelerating 2nm GAA node makes Lam one of the biggest equipment beneficiaries — even as the stock slipped ~1% on the day.
Why is Morgan Stanley doubling down on Lam now?
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating on Lam Research (LRCX) and raised the target from $367 to $385.
The thesis: TSMC's 2nm GAA — gate-all-around, a transistor design that wraps the gate on all four sides for tighter current control and lower power — is ramping faster than expected, and Lam is a prime beneficiary.
This means → Morgan Stanley is betting not on a single order cycle but on a structural share shift driven by the generational node transition.
Why is the December-quarter revenue call above consensus?
Morgan Stanley forecasts Lam's December-quarter revenue at $9 billion, above the Street's $8.5 billion, with risk skewed to the upside.
The backdrop: semiconductor equipment has broken through both demand (cleanroom) and supply-chain constraints; December-quarter WFE — wafer fab equipment — is projected to annualize above $200 billion, up 60% year-on-year.
In plain terms = DRAM and 2nm logic customers are pulling orders forward at an unprecedented scale — Morgan Stanley does not rule out guidance above $9 billion.
How big are the share gains, in numbers?
Lam's logic share grew roughly 300 basis points in 2025; Morgan Stanley expects another ~80 bps in 2026.
The key jump is at 2nm: Lam's share rises about 200 bps from 3nm to 2nm. Per-wafer WFE spending at 2nm is up roughly 50% versus 3nm, while the industry average increase is only about 30%.
This means → Lam captures more value per wafer than peers, and the more advanced the node, the wider the gap.
Why did the market doubt this story before?
Investors previously worried that Lam's 2025 share gains were driven mainly by the China market, raising sustainability concerns.
Morgan Stanley now argues Lam's share in leading-edge logic — i.e. advanced-node customers such as TSMC — will keep growing, anchored specifically by the 2nm ramp.
Lam's share of TSMC capex is expected to rise roughly 10 bps from FY2025 to FY2026, then a more significant ~130 bps by 2027.
How is Lam's product mix shifting?
Morgan Stanley estimates Lam's 2026 logic share will reach 11.8%, approaching its overall WFE share of 12.3%.
This reflects a transformation from a portfolio once tilted heavily toward NAND — flash memory chips — to a more diversified end-market mix.
Morgan Stanley adds that Lam is on track to be the fastest-growing equipment maker for a third straight year — whether the 2027 share gains materialize will be the key test of this thesis.
Why did the stock dip on good news?
On the day of the report, Lam shares fell ~1%, while TSMC hit an all-time high and approached a market cap of $2.5 trillion.
In plain terms = the Lam bull case was already partly priced in; capital on the day chased TSMC itself — a raised price target is not the same as a near-term catalyst.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。